TIAN Mi, LI Dian-qing, CAO Zi-jun, et al. Quantification of spatial variability of soil parameters using Bayesian approaches[J]. 2017, 38(11): 3355-3362.
TIAN Mi, LI Dian-qing, CAO Zi-jun, et al. Quantification of spatial variability of soil parameters using Bayesian approaches[J]. 2017, 38(11): 3355-3362.DOI: 10.16285/j.rsm.2017.11.035.
岩土工程可靠度分析和设计中,合理地选取随机场参数和相关函数,并准确地描述土性参数空间变异性十分困难。基于贝叶斯理论,本文提出了一套量化砂土有效内摩擦角空间变异性的方法。该方法根据先验信息和静力触探试验锥尖阻力数据,确定砂土有效内摩擦角的随机场参数和相关函数。该方法合理地考虑了砂土有效内摩擦角与锥尖阻力间经验回归方程的不确定性。采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation,MCMCS)获取服从后验分布的随机场参数样本。利用MCMCS样本构建随机场参数的Gaussian Copula函数求解后验分布。估计备选相关函数的概率,选择概率最大的为最可能的相关函数。最后,采用美国德州农工大学国家岩土工程砂土试验场的CPT数据算例验证了文中所提方法的有效性。结果表明:文中所提方法可以正确、合理地利用间接测量的锥尖阻力数据确定砂土有效内摩擦角的随机场参数和相关函数,准确量化其空间变异性。对于美国德州农工大学国家岩土工程砂土试验场的砂土有效内摩擦角,建议选用二阶自回归函数作为其最可能的相关函数。
Abstract
In the geotechnical engineering reliability analysis and design
it is very difficult to accurately select the random field parameters and the correlation function
and to accurately describe the spatial variability of soil parameters. Based on Bayesian theory
this paper presents a method to quantify the spatial variability of effective internal friction angle of sand. A proper correlation function using prior knowledge and cone penetration test (CPT) data are used to determine the random field parameters and the correlation function of the effective internal friction angle of sand by the method. This method takes reasonable account of the uncertainty of the empirical regression equation between the effective internal friction angle and the cone resistance. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMCS) method is applied in this paper to generate random samples following the posterior distribution. The MCMCS samples are used to calculate the posterior distribution by a Gaussian Copula-based method. Then
the plausibility of a candidate correlation function is obtained and the most probable correlation function is selected. Finally
the proposed approaches are illustrated and validated by using real-life CPT data obtained from NGES at Texas A&M University. It is shown that the proposed approaches can
correctly and reasonably
determine the random field parameters and correlation function of sand effective friction angle by using the indirect CPT data. It is possible to accurately describe the spatial variability of sand effective friction angle. The correlation function of effective friction angle at the sand site of NGES at Texas A&M University is second-order Markov correlation function.