GE Shaoyun, LI Jifeng, LIU Hong, et al. Modelling of household energy consumption characteristics considering physical features and behavior factors[J]. 2019, 39(3): 36-44.
GE Shaoyun, LI Jifeng, LIU Hong, et al. Modelling of household energy consumption characteristics considering physical features and behavior factors[J]. 2019, 39(3): 36-44. DOI: 10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2019.03.006.
考虑物理特征与行为因素的家庭用能特性建模
摘要
针对常规负荷建模与预测未考虑用户的行为特性
并且需要大量历史数据作为研究基础的问题
提出一种考虑物理特征与行为因素的家庭用能特性建模方法。以家庭能源中心作为研究对象
在介绍总体分析流程的同时
归纳外部需求、内部转换以及终端能源负荷类型;考虑物理特征与行为因素
建立电器设备的用能模型
并提出模型扩展方法;在此基础上
通过非侵入式负荷分解与马尔可夫链相结合的方法分析模拟用户的用能行为。算例分析表明
所提方法具有独立刻画负荷肖像曲线的能力
不再依赖大量数据进行派生驱动。
Abstract
Aiming at the problem that modelling and prediction of conventional load do not consider user behavior characteristics and need to take massive historical data as the research basic
a modelling method of household energy consumption characteristics with the consideration of physical features and behavior factors is proposed. Taking the household energy center as the research object
the overall analysis flowchart is introduced
meanwhile the external demand
internal conversion and terminal energy load type are induced. Considering the physical features and behavior factors
the energy consumption model of electrical equipment is built and its expansion method is proposed. On this basis
the user energy consumption behavior is simulated with the combination of non-intrusive load decomposition and Markov chain. Case analysis shows that
the proposed method has the ability to depict load portrait curve independently and no longer depends on massive data for derivation drive.