In order to systematically analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation in flood season and short-term forecasting methods in Gongqingcheng area

by means of comparative analysis

regression analysis

wavelet analysis and M-K test

the time variation characteristics of precipitation in flood season and its correlation with climatic background factors of last winter are analyzed

and then the annual forecast model of precipitation in flood season is established. The results show that: 1) The linear and periodic variation trend of precipitation in the study area from April to June is not significant

and the interdecadal variation is stable. The precipitation in July increased linearly and there was a main oscillation period with a scale of 10-11 a. There was no mutation in either. 2) There is a certain degree of correlation between last year’s winter temperature and precipitation factors and precipitation in flood season. Therefore

the precipitation forecast model established by this model has certain application or reference value in business.