纸质出版:2025
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李聪敏, 马尚贤. 宁夏水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合协调发展评价[J]. 水利发展研究, 2025,(10):121-128.
李聪敏, 马尚贤. 宁夏水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合协调发展评价[J]. 水利发展研究, 2025,(10):121-128. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrdr.2025.10.019.
充分认识水资源-经济社会-生态环境共同构成的水资源复合系统的耦合协调状态,对缓解区域水资源和生态环境压力、实现区域经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。文章结合宁夏回族自治区水资源、经济社会发展和生态环境保护等方面的现状和问题,通过构建相互适应的耦合协调评价指标体系,利用AHP-CRITIC组合权重模型和耦合协调模型对宁夏整体及各地级市2012—2021年的水资源复合系统发展水平和耦合协调度作出评价。结果表明:从时间序列上看,宁夏水资源复合系统发展水平在2012—2021年总体呈波动上升趋势,且波动形态与水资源子系统的波动形态基本一致,水资源复合系统受水资源子系统的影响较大;宁夏水资源复合系统耦合协调度在2012—2021年总体呈波动上升趋势,耦合协调度处于濒临失调衰退与初级协调耦合区间内。从空间布局上看,宁夏各地级市水资源复合系统的综合评价指数在2012—2021年持续提升,且差异性较大,耦合协调度在2018年后普遍趋好。本研究提出了水资源复合系统耦合协调发展评价的新方法,为深入剖析宁夏乃至西北地区水资源、经济社会与生态环境系统的耦合协调发展状况提供了有力工具,主要研究内容和结论对于促进区域可持续发展具有一定的实践指导意义。
Fully understanding the coupling and coordinated status of the water resources complex system composed of water resources
economy and society
and ecological environment is of great significance for alleviating regional water resources and ecological environment pressure
and achieving sustainable development of regional economy and society. This article combines the current situation and issues of water resources
economic and social development
and ecological environment protection in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
evaluates the development level and coupling coordination degree of the water resources complex system in Ningxia as a whole and various prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2021 based on a mutually adaptive coupling coordination evaluation index system
the AHP-CRITIC combined weight model and coupling coordination model. The results show that
from a time series perspective
the overall development level of Ningxia water resources complex system has been fluctuating upwards from 2012 to 2021
and the fluctuation pattern is basically consistent with that of the water resources subsystem. The water resources complex system is greatly influenced by the water resources subsystem. The coupling and coordination degree of Ningxia water resources complex system shows an overall fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2021
and the coupling coordination degree is in the range of near imbalance decline and primary coordination coupling. From the perspective of spatial layout
the comprehensive evaluation index of the water resources complex system in various prefecture-level cities in Ningxia has continued to improve from 2012 to 2021
with significant differences
and the coupling and coordination degree has generally improved after 2018. This study proposes a new method for evaluating the coupling and coordinated development of water resources complex systems
providing a powerful tool for in-depth analysis of the coupling and coordinated development status of water resources
economy and society
and ecological environment systems in Ningxia and even the northwest region. The main research content and conclusions have certain practical guidance significance for promoting regional sustainable development.
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