长春市气象局,吉林,长春,130012
袁金华(1987—),女,硕士研究生,工程师,研究方向为气象服务与应用气象,E-mail:18786220428@163.com
李倩(1986—),女,硕士研究生,高级工程师,研究方向为短期天气预报,E-mail:1328740583@QQ.com
纸质出版:2026
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袁金华, 杨秀峰, 姚宏伟, 李倩, 郭小强. 极端气温事件对长春市电力负荷的影响研究[J]. 农村电气化, 2026, (6): 1-5.
YUAN Jinhua, YANG Xiufeng, YAO Hongwei, et al. Study on the Impact of Extreme Temperature Events on Power Load in Changchun[J]. Rural Electrification, 2026, (6): 1-5.
袁金华, 杨秀峰, 姚宏伟, 李倩, 郭小强. 极端气温事件对长春市电力负荷的影响研究[J]. 农村电气化, 2026, (6): 1-5. DOI: 10.13882/j.cnki.ncdqh.2603A040.
YUAN Jinhua, YANG Xiufeng, YAO Hongwei, et al. Study on the Impact of Extreme Temperature Events on Power Load in Changchun[J]. Rural Electrification, 2026, (6): 1-5. DOI: 10.13882/j.cnki.ncdqh.2603A040.
本研究以副热带高压影响下的长春地区为对象,基于2025年夏季高温时段电力负荷与气温、湿度、风速、体感温度、比湿等气象要素的关系。结果表明:2025年7月4—12日,长春受副高影响出现历史同期极端高温,平均气温较常年偏高4.1 ℃,为历史同期偏高第一;极端最高气温居1951年以来同期第三,高温强度和持续性达极端标准。气温呈极强正相关(
R
= 0.9),体感温度呈较强正相关(
R
= 0.7),相对湿度呈中等负相关(
R
= −0.5),风速和比湿弱呈正相关(
R
= 0.3),各气象要素与用电负荷相关性差异显著。气温31 ℃且体感温度42 ℃时,可作为高负荷监测指标;气温超33 ℃且体感温度超46 ℃时,可作为启动应急调度指标。该指标能为同类天气电力预测提供参考。
This study focuses on the Changchun area under the influence of the subtropical high and analyzes the relationships between power load and meteorological factors during the high-temperature period in the summer of 2025
including air temperature
relative humidity
wind speed
apparent temperature
and specific humidity. The results show that from July 4 to 12
2025
Changchun experiences a historically extreme high-temperature event under the influence of the subtropical high. The average temperature is 4.1 °C higher than the climatological normal
ranking first among historical anomalies for the same period
. The extreme maximum temperature ranks third for the same period since 1951
and the intensity and duration of the high-temperature event reach the extreme level. Air temperature shows a very strong positive correlation with power load
with
R
= 0.9. Apparent temperature shows a strong positive correlation
with
R
= 0.7. Relative humidity shows a moderate negative correlation
with
R
= −0.5. Wind speed and specific humidity show weak positive correlations
with
R
= 0.3. These results indicate significant differences in the correlations between different meteorological factors and power load. An air temperature of 31 °C and an apparent temperature of 42 °C can be used as high-load monitoring indicators. When the air temperature exceeds 33 °C and the apparent temperature exceeds 46 °C
these conditions can be used as indicators for initiating emergency dispatch. The proposed indicators provide a reference for power load forecasting under similar weather conditions.
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