1. 重庆三峡学院,重庆 404120三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北,宜昌,443002
2. 三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北,宜昌,443002
[ "董利飞(1988—),男,博士,副教授,从事非常规油气开发与安全、岩石物理与渗流力学等工作。地址:重庆市万州区重庆三峡学院,邮政编码:404120。E-mail:lfdong2012@sina.com" ]
[ "杨超(1986—),男,博士,副教授,从事岩石(体)流变力学、地下洞室开挖与支护等工作。地址:湖北省宜昌市大学路8号,邮政编码:443002。E-mail:yangchao0615@ctgu.edu.cn" ]
纸质出版:2024
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董利飞, 董文卓, 张旗, 等. 咸水层中CO2溶解性能预测方法优选[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2024,14(1):35-41.
DONG Lifei, DONG Wenzhuo, ZHANG Qi, et al. Optimal prediction method for CO2 solubility in saline aquifers[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2024, 14(1): 35-41.
董利飞, 董文卓, 张旗, 等. 咸水层中CO2溶解性能预测方法优选[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2024,14(1):35-41. DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2024.01.005.
DONG Lifei, DONG Wenzhuo, ZHANG Qi, et al. Optimal prediction method for CO2 solubility in saline aquifers[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2024, 14(1): 35-41. DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2024.01.005.
CO
2
在咸水层中的溶解性能是估算CO
2
溶解埋存量的重要参数。为了快速经济地评价分析CO
2
在咸水层中溶解性能,基于目前不同温度、压强、矿化度下CO
2
在水中溶解性能数据,开展灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,分析预测相对误差,应用马尔科夫理论,划分状态区间并构造状态转移概率矩阵,对预测结果进行修正,提出基于灰色马尔科夫理论的CO
2
在咸水层中溶解性能预测模型。结果表明:灰色马尔科夫模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为1.52%、17.73%、0.21%、3.97%,灰色GM(1,1)模型预测结果的平均相对误差分别为2.37%、19.29%、3.62%、3.94%,灰色马尔科夫预测值与相应实测数据更吻合,模型预测性能较好,可为CO
2
在地下咸水中的溶解度预测提供1种新方法。
CO
2
solubility in saline aquifer is an important parameter for estimating the volume of CO
2
that can be dissolved and stored underground. To rapidly and economically evaluate and analyze the solubility of CO
2
in saline aquifers
a study was conducted using grey GM(1
1) modeling based on existing data of CO
2
solubility in water under various temperatures
pressures
and salinities. By using Markov theory
the state interval was divided
the state transition probability matrix was constructed
and the prediction results were revised. A prediction model of CO
2
solubility in saline aquifer based on grey Markov theory was proposed. T
he results showed that the average relative errors between the predicted values of the grey Markov theory and the measured values were 1.52%、17.73%、0.21% and 3.97%
respectively. The average relative errors between the prediction results of the gray GM(1
1) model were 2.37%、19.29%、3.62% and 3.94%
respectively. The predicted values of the grey Markov model were more consistent with the measured data
and the prediction performance of the model was better
so as to provide a new method for predicting the solubility of CO
2
in underground salt water.
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