1. 西安科技大学地质与环境学院,陕西 西安 710054煤与煤层气共采技术国家重点实验室,山西,晋城,048000
2. 煤与煤层气共采技术国家重点实验室,山西 晋城 048000陕西煤层气开发利用有限公司,陕西,西安,710065
3. 陕西煤层气开发利用有限公司,陕西 西安 710065自然资源部煤炭资源勘查与综合利用重点实验室,陕西,西安,710021
4. 自然资源部煤炭资源勘查与综合利用重点实验室,陕西,西安,710021
[ "陈跃(1988—),男,博士,副教授,从事非常规天然气地质研究。地址:陕西省西安市雁塔中路58号西安科技大学,邮政编码:710054。E-mail: cyxust@126.com" ]
[ "王丽雅 E-mail:cyxust@126.com" ]
纸质出版:2022
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陈跃, 王丽雅, 李国富, 等. 基于随机森林算法的低煤阶煤层气开发选区预测[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2022,(4):596-603+616.
CHEN Yue, WANG Liya, LI Guofu, et al. Prediction of favorable areas for low-rank coalbed methane based on Random Forest algorithm[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2022, (4): 596-603+616.
陈跃, 王丽雅, 李国富, 等. 基于随机森林算法的低煤阶煤层气开发选区预测[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2022,(4):596-603+616. DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2022.04.007.
CHEN Yue, WANG Liya, LI Guofu, et al. Prediction of favorable areas for low-rank coalbed methane based on Random Forest algorithm[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2022, (4): 596-603+616. DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2022.04.007.
中国低煤阶煤层气资源丰富,且煤层气作为一种清洁能源,其开发和利用可有效地缓解我国天然气资源短缺问题,但是商业化规模开发稍显不足,亟需系统研究。煤层气高效开发的前提是有利区优选,但目前煤层气开发选区评价均涉及一定的主观人为因素,会间接影响或干扰预测效果。将黄陇煤田彬长矿区大佛寺井田低煤阶作为研究对象,以生产实际数据为基础,采用机器学习中的随机森林算法对该区煤层气开发选区做出预测。结果表明:(1)Pearson关联系数(PCC)分析表明含气量、灰分、煤层净厚度、构造位置、顶板厚度、渗透率、储层压力和埋深这8个煤层气产出相关参数相互独立,可用于模型建立;(2)随机森林算法将煤层气开发选区划分为5类不同程度的区域,其中Ⅰ类(极高)和Ⅱ类(高有利)区占整个研究区域的13.88%,主要分布在井田的中部,西部存在Ⅱ类(高有利区)分布,后续开发部署井位也可着重考虑,而井田的东南部不适于后续部署井位;(3)由接受者操作特征曲线(ROC)可知,一般成功率曲线与预测率曲线下的面积值(AUC)为0.961,表明随机森林模型预测精度较高,结果可靠。通过机器学习算法对煤层气开发选区进行综合预测,可规避传统算法中的人为主观因素,且具有较高的精度,可为后续非常规油气开发选区提供一定的理论参考依据。
In China
low-rank coal and coalbed methane resources are abundant
meanwhile
as a kind of clean energy
the development and utilization of coalbed methane(CBM) can effectively alleviate the shortage of natural gas resources
but the commercial scale development is slightly insufficient
and systematic research is urgently needed. The premise of efficient CBM development is the selection of favorable areas
but the current CBM development evaluation involves certain subjective human factors
which will indirectly affect or interfere with the prediction effect. Taking the low-rank coal in the Dafosi minefield in the Binchang mining area of Huanglong Coal Field as the research object
based on the actual production data
the random forest algorithm in machine learning is used to predict the favorable area of coalbed methane in the area. The results show that: ① Pearson correlation analysis shows that the gas content
ash content
net thickness of coal seam
structural position
roof thickness
permeability
reservoir pressure and burial depth are eight mutually independent CBM output-related parameters and can be used for model establishment; ② The Random Forest algorithm divides the CBM development area into five types of areas with different degrees
of which type Ⅰ(extremely high) to Ⅱ(highly favorable) areas account for 13.88 % of the entire study area
mainly distributed in the middle of the well field. The southeast is not suitable for subsequent deployment of well locations
and there is a distribution of highly favorable areas in the west
so the well locations for subsequent development and deployment should also be considered. ③ It can be obtained from the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve
and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.961
indicating that the Random Forest model has high prediction accuracy and reliable results. Using machine learning algorithms for comprehensive prediction of CBM favorable areas can avoid human subjective factors in traditional algorithms
and can provide a certain theoretical reference for subsequent unconventional oil and gas development and selection.
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