1. 新能源电力系统全国重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京,102206
2. 国网青海省电力公司电力科学研究院,西宁,810000
3. 国网青海省电力公司,西宁,810000
纸质出版:2025
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黄涛, 张智, 丁玉杰, 等. 考虑寒潮天气下源-网故障概率信息的两阶段鲁棒预防调度方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2025,51(10):5114-5126.
HUANG Tao, ZHANG Zhi, DING Yujie, et al. 考虑寒潮天气下源-网故障概率信息的两阶段鲁棒预防调度方法[J]. 2025, 51(10): 5114-5126.
黄涛, 张智, 丁玉杰, 等. 考虑寒潮天气下源-网故障概率信息的两阶段鲁棒预防调度方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2025,51(10):5114-5126. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20250414.
HUANG Tao, ZHANG Zhi, DING Yujie, et al. 考虑寒潮天气下源-网故障概率信息的两阶段鲁棒预防调度方法[J]. 2025, 51(10): 5114-5126. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20250414.
全球气候变化背景下,寒潮天气事件呈现频发趋势,其伴随的大范围雨雪天气易引发电网关键元件覆冰故障,加剧电力系统大停电风险。为提升电力系统应对寒潮极端天气的能力,提出考虑源-网故障概率信息的两阶段鲁棒预防调度方法。首先,结合寒潮天气下源-网覆冰特征构建了关键元件故障模型。在源侧,采用隐马尔科夫模型建立风机停运故障概率模型;在网侧,考虑输电线路的热融冰特性,构建了考虑覆冰-融冰动态过程的故障概率模型。其次,运用信息熵理论构造了考虑风机停运与输电线路故障信息的不确定集合。在此基础上,以寒潮天气下系统预防调度成本最低为目标,建立考虑故障概率信息的两阶段鲁棒预防调度模型,并利用列和约束生成算法进行求解,实现对发电计划和事故备用的协同优化。在改进的IEEE-RTS 79系统进行算例分析,结果表明,所提故障概率建模方法能合理量化新能源和输电线路的故障风险,降低不确定集合的保守性,并且有效降低了预防调度的成本。
Under the global climate deterioration scenario
frequent cold wave events and their associated large-scale snow/rain weather conditions increasingly trigger icing failures in critical power grid components
heightening power system outage risks. To enhance power system resilience against cold waves
this paper proposes a two-stage robust preventive scheduling method incorporating source-grid failure probability information. By integrating icing characteristics of generation and grid components under cold wave conditions
critical component failure models are established as follows: a hidden Markov model (HMM) quantifies wind turbine outage probabilities on the generation side
while a dynamic ice accretion-melting process model evaluates transmission line failures on the grid side
considering thermal ice-melting properties. By utilizing information entropy theory
uncertainty sets are constructed to encapsulate wind turbine outages and transmission line faults. A cost-minimizing two-stage robust preventive scheduling model is developed and optimized through the column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm to coordinate generation scheduling and contin-gency reserves. Case studies on the modified IEEE-RTS 79 system demonstrate that the proposed probability modeling method can be adopted to effectively quantify renewable energy and transmission line failure risks
reduce the conservatism in uncertainty sets
and lower the preventive scheduling costs compared to conventional approaches.
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