1. 广东电网有限责任公司,广州,510000
2. 清华四川能源互联网研究院,成都,610000
纸质出版:2025
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李阳, 张东辉, 龚贤夫, 等. 基于日内时段划分的风电出力序列模拟方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2025,51(12):5954-5962.
李阳, 张东辉, 龚贤夫, et al. 基于日内时段划分的风电出力序列模拟方法[J]. 2025, 51(12): 5954-5962.
李阳, 张东辉, 龚贤夫, 等. 基于日内时段划分的风电出力序列模拟方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2025,51(12):5954-5962. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241652.
李阳, 张东辉, 龚贤夫, et al. 基于日内时段划分的风电出力序列模拟方法[J]. 2025, 51(12): 5954-5962. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241652.
为了克服马尔可夫-蒙特卡洛方法(Markov chain Monte Carlo
MCMC)在生成风电出力序列时无法较好保留反调峰特性的局限性,提出了一种基于日内时段划分的风电出力时序模拟方法。首先,对每个月的日出力曲线进行K-means聚类;其次,将一天划分为等长的若干时间段,将同类自然日的相同时间段拼接为新序列,根据出力值划分包含等样本数量的状态区间,并求新序列的状态转移矩阵;最后,对状态转移矩阵添加随机性和波动分量模拟波动性,再逐时段生成日曲线。通过案例对比证明,该方法不仅在基本的概率密度和自相关函数指标上优于传统的K-means MCMC法,而且更好地保留了反调峰特性,验证了该方法的有效性。论文研究可为电力系统规划中的风电数据样本生成提供参考。
In order to overcome the limitation that the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is unable to better retain the inverse peaking characteristics when generating wind power output sequences
a simulation method of wind power output time series based on the division of intraday time periods is proposed. Firstly
K-means clustering is performed on the daily output curves of each month. Secondly
a day is divided into several time periods of equal length. The same time periods of similar natural days are spliced into a new sequence
and the state intervals containing an equal number of samples are divided according to the output values. The state transfer matrix of the new sequence is solved. Thirdly
stochastic and volatility components are added to the state transfer matrix to simulate the fluctuation
and then the daily curves are generated sequentially by time period. Finally
stochastic and volatility components are incorporated into the state transfer matrix to simulate volatility
and daily curves are then generated by time period. Through the use of case comparisons
it is demonstrated that this method outperforms the traditional K-means MCMC method in terms of basic probability density and autocorrelation function indexes. Furthermore
it has been shown to better restore the inverse peaking characteristics
thereby verifying the effectiveness of the method. The research can serve as a reference point for the generation of wind power data samples in the context of power system planning.
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