RUL)的准确预测可以有效提高电力系统的可靠性。鉴于此,该文提出一种基于多特征融合和多步估计的电缆RUL预测方法。首先,对多个特征的时间序列数据进行标准化处理,利用灰色关联分析法筛选出重要特征,并通过主客观综合权重法计算多个特征的权重,进而得到综合特征。其次,将灰狼优化算法及其改进形式与支持向量回归模型结合,形成增广支持向量回归模型(augmented support vector regression model
Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of cables can effectively enhance the reliability of power system. Therefore
this paper proposes a method for predicting the RUL of cables based on multi-feature fusion and multi-step estimation. Firstly
the time series data of multiple features are standardized
and important features are selected using the grey relational analysis method. Then
the weights of these features are calculated using the subjective and objective integrated weighting method to obtain a comprehensive feature. Secondly
the grey wolf optimizer and its improved forms are combined with the support vector regression model to form an augmented support vector regression model (ASVR). Thirdly
the ASVR is trained using the known comprehensive features and used for multi-step estimation of unknown comprehensive features. Finally
the RUL of the cable is determined based on the failure threshold of the comprehensive feature and the results of multi-step estimation. The example results show that the mean absolute errors of RUL prediction under the known datasets of 50%
60%
and 70% are 0.44 years
0.14 years
and 0.15 years
respectively. This indicates that the proposed prediction method has achieved accurate predictions of cable RUL
providing effective technical support for the health management of cables.