华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市 昌平区,102206
纸质出版:2026
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杨俊峰, 1, 2, 等. 面向光伏集群的图状态空间建模与短期协同预测方法[J]. 电网技术, 2026,50(3):955-965.
YANG Junfeng, 1, 2, et al. Graph State-Space Modeling and Short-term Collaborative Forecasting Method for Photovoltaic Clusters[J]. 2026, 50(3): 955-965.
杨俊峰, 1, 2, 等. 面向光伏集群的图状态空间建模与短期协同预测方法[J]. 电网技术, 2026,50(3):955-965. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2025.1624.
YANG Junfeng, 1, 2, et al. Graph State-Space Modeling and Short-term Collaborative Forecasting Method for Photovoltaic Clusters[J]. 2026, 50(3): 955-965. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2025.1624.
针对高比例新能源并网下光伏集群功率预测面临的复杂空间关联量化建模、功率波动空间传播及技术异质性表征等挑战,该文提出一种基于图状态空间模型(graph state space model,GSSM)的短期同预测方法。首先,通过可学习权重自适应融合光伏电站的地理邻近性、技术相似性与电气耦合性构建多尺度图,精准量化电站间动态关联;其次,建立连续时间状态空间方程,显式引入图扩散项,以物理驱动方式刻画气象扰动在集群中的连续传播过程;最后,利用选择性扫描机制,依据气象特征与电站元数据动态调整模型参数,增强对瞬态气象事件的响应能力,并通过多步预测器完成光伏集群的短期协同预测。基于公开数据集PVOD的实验与算例分析表明,GSSM方法在训练效率、预测精度及稳定性上均显著优于长短时记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络、时空图卷积网络(spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks,STGCN)等基线模型方法,并能有效适应异质性光伏集群场景。该研究可为电网调度提供有力技术支持,助力高比例新能源系统安全运行。
The integration of high-penetration renewable energy sources into power grids poses significant challenges for photovoltaic (PV) cluster power forecasting
including quantitative modeling of complex spatial correlations
spatial propagation of power fluctuations
and characterization of technical heterogeneity
this paper proposes a short-term collaborative forecasting method based on a graph state space model (GSSM). The proposed method commences with multi-scale graph construction
which adaptively incorporates critical information
including geographical proximity
technological homogeneity
and electrical coupling among PV power plants to precisely capture dynamic inter-plant correlations. Subsequently
a continuous-time state-space formulation is developed
incorporating an explicit graph diffusion term to physically interpret the propagation of meteorological disturbances across the cluster. To enhance responsiveness to transient weather events
a selective scanning mechanism is integrated
enabling dynamic modulation of model parameters
and further achieving short-term collaborative prediction for photovoltaic clusters through a multi-step predictor. Empirical evaluations on the publicly available PVOD dataset demonstrate that GSSM substantially surpasses baseline models
including long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks (STGCN)
in training efficiency
predictive accuracy
and long-term stability. Moreover
GSSM exhibits robust generalization to heterogeneous PV cluster configurations. This research can provide technical support for power grid dispatch and assist in the safe operation of high-proportion renewable energy systems.
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