LIU Zibing, CUI Shuangxi, LIU Qingqing. New Energy Scenario Generation Method Based on an Improved WGAN-GP Integrating Multi-scale Convolution and Multi-head Attention Mechanisms[J]. 2026, 50(1): 272-283.
LIU Zibing, CUI Shuangxi, LIU Qingqing. New Energy Scenario Generation Method Based on an Improved WGAN-GP Integrating Multi-scale Convolution and Multi-head Attention Mechanisms[J]. 2026, 50(1): 272-283. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2025.1065.
在新能源发电占比持续提升的背景下,如何精确刻画并有效管理其不确定性,对新型电力系统规划与安全稳定运行至关重要。对此,提出一种融合多尺度卷积与多头注意力机制的Wasserstein生成对抗网络结合梯度惩罚(Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty,WGAN-GP)新能源场景生成方法。该方法通过并行多尺度卷积网络高效提取新能源出力在不同时间尺度的特征,并引入多头注意力机制以捕捉长期依赖关系,显著增强了模型对复杂动态的建模能力。此外,构建了全面的可解释性分析框架,利用夏普利加性解释方法(SHapley additive exPlanations,SHAP)归因分析与注意力权重可视化,深入剖析了模型的决策过程。实验结果表明,该方法为新能源出力不确定性分析提供了一种有效且可解释的工具。
Abstract
With the continuous increase in the penetration of renewable energy
the accurate characterization and effective management of its inherent uncertainty have become crucial for the planning and secure operation of modern power systems. To address this challenge
this paper proposes a renewable energy scenario generation method based on a Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP)
integrated with multi-scale convolution and a multi-head attention mechanism. The method efficiently extracts features of renewable energy output at different time scales through a parallel multi-scale convolutional network. It incorporates a multi-head attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies
thereby significantly enhancing the model's capability to model complex dynamics. Furthermore
a comprehensive interpretability analysis framework is established
combining SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) attribution analysis with attention weight visualization to gain deep insights into the model’s decision-making process. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method provides an effective and interpretable tool for the uncertainty analysis of renewable energy output.