CAI Zilong, 1, LI Jiaqi, et al. A Short-term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on SDAE-EEMD Denoising Decomposition and an Improved Informer-BiLSTM Model[J]. 2025, 49(12): 5009-5018.
CAI Zilong, 1, LI Jiaqi, et al. A Short-term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on SDAE-EEMD Denoising Decomposition and an Improved Informer-BiLSTM Model[J]. 2025, 49(12): 5009-5018. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2025.0581.
当前短期负荷预测模型在电价与负荷动态融合机制、负荷数据降噪与时序特征提取环节仍存在不足,制约了预测精度的提升。该文提出了一种集成电价及气象多维特征的短期电力负荷预测框架。首先,结合堆叠降噪自编码器(stacked denoising autoencoders,SDAE)和集合经验模态分解(ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)构建混合降噪分解模块,有效抑制负荷序列中的噪声干扰和模态混叠问题。EEMD将去噪后负荷序列分解为固有模态函数(intrinsic mode functions,IMFs)分量。其次,基于最大信息系数(maximum information coefficient,MIC)分析,将电价和气象特征分别融入高、低频IMFs分量中,实现差异化的特征动态融合。在此基础上,提出分频预测策略。针对高频分量,引入全局时间戳编码与稀疏注意力机制的改进Informer模型,以捕捉短时剧烈波动特征;对低频分量,采用BiLSTM网络捕捉长期趋势与周期性。最后,基于澳大利亚国家电力市场公开数据集的实证结果表明,在平均绝对百分比误差和均方误差两个指标上均显著优于未引入电价特征或未采用分频策略的对比模型。通过高质量数据预处理、关键特征动态融合与针对性分频结构建模的协同优化,有效提升了短期负荷预测的精度与稳定性,可为电力市场动态定价机制下的负荷预测提供高效可靠的技术支撑。
Abstract
Current short-term load forecasting models exhibit deficiencies in the dynamic fusion mechanism for electricity prices and load
as well as in load data denoising and temporal feature extraction. This paper proposes a forecasting framework integrating multi-dimensional electricity prices and meteorological features. Firstly
a hybrid denoising decomposition module is constructed by combining stacked denoising autoencoders (SDAE) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to effectively suppress noise interference and mode mixing problems in the load sequence. EEMD decomposes the denoised load sequence into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) components. Secondly
based on maximum information coefficient (MIC) analysis
electricity price and meteorological features are fused into high-frequency and low-frequency IMFs
achieving differentiated feature integration. On this basis
a crossover prediction strategy is proposed. For high-frequency components
an improved informer model with global timestamp coding and sparse attention mechanism is introduced to capture the characteristics of short-term violent fluctuations. For the low-frequency components
the bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network is used to capture the long-term trend and periodicity. Finally
results using the Australian NEM dataset demonstrate that the model significantly outperforms comparative models lacking electricity price features or the frequency-divided strategy on MAPE and MSE metrics. The framework enhances accuracy and stability
providing reliable technical support for forecasting under dynamic pricing.