输变电装备技术全国重点实验室(重庆大学)
纸质出版:2026
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赵渊, 胡家勤, 谢开贵, et al. 基于离散随机变量相关性重要抽样的电网可靠性评估交叉熵法[J]. 2026, 50(6): 2489-2498.
赵渊, 胡家勤, 谢开贵, 等. 基于离散随机变量相关性重要抽样的电网可靠性评估交叉熵法[J]. 电网技术, 2026,50(6):2489-2498. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.2131.
赵渊, 胡家勤, 谢开贵, et al. 基于离散随机变量相关性重要抽样的电网可靠性评估交叉熵法[J]. 2026, 50(6): 2489-2498. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.2131.
传统交叉熵法(cross-entropy method
CEM)对数量占主导地位的离散随机变量(表征元件“工作”和“停运”的离散状态变量)采取独立重要抽样方式,虽简单易行,但制约了加速性能充分发挥。为挖掘CEM潜能,提出了基于离散随机变量相关性重要抽样的电网可靠性评估交叉熵法。为了对离散随机变量在故障域中的变化规律进行更好概率描述,采用了离散混合模型构建重要抽样密度函数,推导了混合模型的参数解析表达式,给出了参数求解的多步期望最大化(expectation-maximum
EM)算法。所提相关性重要抽样方法相比独立重要抽样能更有效捕获高风险多元件组合故障,提高了失负荷事件抽样效率,进一步加速了电网可靠性评估。通过IEEE-RTS79、IEEE-RTS96等系统的评估分析,验证了所提方法的优势。
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