Reliable modeling of typhoon intensity probability is a key foundation for conducting power grid load loss assessments

supporting resilience assessments of the power grid. However

due to the scarcity of historical data on extreme typhoon events

accurately modeling the probability of typhoon intensity and assessing its impact on power grid load remains challenging. To address this issue

this paper proposes a power grid load loss assessment method considering the tail probability characteristics of typhoon intensity. Firstly

based on the integration of mechanism and data

a probabilistic modeling method for typhoon intensity is proposed

focusing on determining distribution types and parameter estimation. Secondly

a comprehensive “probability modeling - scenario generation - indicator analysis” process is designed to assess power grid load loss. Finally

a typhoon intensity probability model for the coastal regions of China is established

and the load loss risk of the system under typhoon disasters is evaluated through test cases

verifying the effectiveness of the proposed method.