In the study of operational risk assessment for electrical main wiring

conventional methods only consider the lack of connectivity as a fault criterion

making it difficult to quantify the impact of equipment load capacity on operational risk. To address this issue

this paper first proposes a time-varying capacity network equivalence method for electrical main wiring. Building on this

and incorporating a multi-operational state model of equipment

a time-varying capacity network state duration sampling method is introduced based on the idea of sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally

this paper introduces a maximum flow calculation method for electrical main wiring based on an improved Dinic algorithm

enabling the quantitative calculation of operational risk indicators. The effectiveness and advancement of the proposed methods are validated using the IEEE-RBTS and IEEE-RTS96 test systems. The results show that changes in load levels during the operational phase significantly affect the operational risk of electrical main wiring

and the methods proposed in this paper can help operators understand the variation patterns of operational risks in substations.