CUI Yang, ZHU Han, ZHANG Jietan, et al. Photovoltaic Ultra-short-term Multi-step Power Prediction Based on Satellite Cloud Image and Station Spatial Distribution[J]. 2026, 46(8): 3285-3297.
CUI Yang, ZHU Han, ZHANG Jietan, et al. Photovoltaic Ultra-short-term Multi-step Power Prediction Based on Satellite Cloud Image and Station Spatial Distribution[J]. 2026, 46(8): 3285-3297.DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242800.
在基于卫星云图的光伏功率预测研究中,捕捉干扰光伏发电的云层特征可有效提高功率预测精度。然而,当前方法存在以下不足:1)光伏电站空间信息有限导致光伏电站的空间建模不够精细;2)通过经验计算的遮挡云层位置存在显著偏差,使模型易获得无效的干扰云层特征。为此,该文引入光伏电站的空间分布信息,并提出端到端的光伏功率预测模型,代替干扰云层位置的经验计算。在该模型中,提出一种双阶段云特征动态编码模块,利用交叉注意力机制构建多模态数据之间的耦合关系,引导模型学习空间中云层的遮蔽影响;然后,将所提取的云层特征送入前馈神经网络,生成描述光伏发电受干扰程度的干扰因子,并与其他因素构成多变量时间序列,通过混合神经网络捕捉序列中的依赖关系,实现功率的精确预测。仿真结果表明,相较于其他先进方法,提前15 min模型的平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)和均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)分别平均减小了15.22%、15.28%,决定系数(R2)平均提高了3.17%。
Abstract
In the study of photovoltaic power prediction based on satellite cloud images
capturing the cloud features that interfere with photovoltaic power generation can effectively improve the accuracy of power prediction. However
the current method has the following shortcomings: 1) The limited spatial information of photovoltaic power station leads to the lack of fine spatial modeling. 2) There is a significant deviation in the position of the occluded clouds calculated by experience. This problem will make the model obtain invalid interference cloud features. Aiming at these problems
this paper introduces the spatial distribution information of photovoltaic power stations
and proposes an end-to-end photovoltaic power prediction model to replace the empirical calculation of the interference cloud position. In this model
a two-stage cloud feature dynamic coding module is proposed. The module uses the cross-attention mechanism to construct the coupling relationship between multi-modal data. This operation can guide the shadowing effect of clouds in the model learning space. Then
the extracted cloud features are sent to the feedforward neural network to generate an interference factor that describes the degree of interference to photovoltaic power generation. The interference factor and other factors constitute a multi-variate time series. The hybrid neural network is used to capture the dependencies in the time series to achieve accurate power prediction. Simulation results show that compared with other advanced methods
the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are reduced by 15.22% and 15.28 % respectively
and the R2 is increased by 3.17% on average in the prediction results of 15 minutes in advance.