A Weighted Mean of Vectors Algorithm-kernel Based Extreme Learning Machine Short-term Prediction Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Under Complex Conditions
LI Ning, CHAI Haokai, GE Leijiao, et al. A Weighted Mean of Vectors Algorithm-kernel Based Extreme Learning Machine Short-term Prediction Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Under Complex Conditions[J]. 2026, 46(7): 2750-2761.
LI Ning, CHAI Haokai, GE Leijiao, et al. A Weighted Mean of Vectors Algorithm-kernel Based Extreme Learning Machine Short-term Prediction Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Under Complex Conditions[J]. 2026, 46(7): 2750-2761. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242128.
高精准的分布式光伏发电功率短期预测是新型电力系统安排调度计划和落实新能源消纳的关键之一,然而,分布式光伏具有运行工况复杂、点多面广、随机性强且数据采集频次不足等特点,传统的数据驱动方法面临数据样本质量差、模型参数优化难等问题,为此,该文提出基于向量加权平均(weighted mean of vectors algorithm,INFO)-核极限学习机(Kernel based extreme learning machine,KELM)的分布式光伏发电功率短期预测方法。针对极限学习机预测模型处理复杂预测时,需要更多的隐层神经元,导致网络结构非常复杂的问题,将核函数引入该模型中,可在增强模型稳定性的同时拥有较强的泛化能力,实现大规模光电数据处理并保持较高实时性;针对核极限学习机模型参数难以整定的问题,使用INFO对KELM参数进行优化,减小预测结果的误差;最后,通过具有明显特征的季节性数据和晴天、多云、雨天3种天气类型进行数据分析。将该方法与KELM模型、RF模型、SVM模型、GA-BP模型、CNN-LSTM模型和GA-KELM模型6种方法进行对比,结果表明:INFO-KELM光伏发电功率短期预测的综合决定系数为0.988,较GA-BP和GA-KELM分别提升8.51%和6.14%,该方法在实现准确预测的同时也保证了较高的实时性。
Abstract
Highly accurate short-term prediction of distributed photovoltaic power generation is one of the keys to the new power system scheduling plan and the implementation of new energy consumption. However
distributed photovoltaic has the characteristics of complex operating conditions
wide range of points
strong randomness and insufficient data collection frequency
etc. Traditional data-driven methods are faced with problems such as poor data sample quality and difficult optimization of model parameters. This paper proposes a Kernel based extreme learning machine based on weighted mean of vectors algorithm (INFO) short-term forecast method of distributed photovoltaic power generation by machine
KELM. To solve the problem that the extreme learning machine prediction model needs more hidden layer neurons when processing complex predictions
resulting in a very complex network structure
kernel function is introduced into the model
which can enhance the stability of the model and have strong generalization ability
realize large-scale photoelectric data processing and maintain high real-time performance. In view of the difficulty of tuning the model parameters of the nuclear extreme learning machine
INFO is used to optimize the KELM parameters and reduce the error of the prediction results. Finally
seasonal data with obvious characteristics and three weather types
sunny
cloudy and rainy
are analyzed. Compared with KELM model
RF model
SVM model
GA-BP model
CNN-LSTM model and GA-KELM model
the results show that: the comprehensive determination coefficient of INFO-KELM PV power short-term prediction is 0.988
which is 8.51% and 6.14% higher than that of GA-BP and GA-KELM respectively. This method not only realizes accurate prediction