1. 三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北省,宜昌市,443000
2. 梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北省,宜昌市,443002
3. 新能源微电网湖北省协同创新中心(三峡大学),湖北省,宜昌市,443002
纸质出版:2025
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李丹, 唐建, 缪书唯, 等. 考虑时序特征缺失值动态插补的超短期风电功率预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025,45(17):6790-6803.
LI Dan, TANG Jian, MIAO Shuwei, et al. Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction Considering Dynamic Interpolation of Missing Values of Time Series Features[J]. 2025, 45(17): 6790-6803.
李丹, 唐建, 缪书唯, 等. 考虑时序特征缺失值动态插补的超短期风电功率预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025,45(17):6790-6803. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240203.
LI Dan, TANG Jian, MIAO Shuwei, et al. Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction Considering Dynamic Interpolation of Missing Values of Time Series Features[J]. 2025, 45(17): 6790-6803. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240203.
风电功率预测使用的数据集可能存在不同程度的数据缺失现象,由于缺失值处理往往独立于预测模型训练之外,无法充分利用真实数据的时序相关特点提高预测效果,对此提出考虑时序特征缺失值动态插补的超短期风电功率预测方法。针对时序数据存在缺失值的问题,设计嵌入时滞衰减插补策略的门控循环单元动态捕捉输入特征时间序列中缺失值前后观测值间的不规则时滞关系,并通过带掩码的自相关分析,确定输入特征的最佳时窗长度和时滞衰减率函数的初始参数;基于门控循环单元提取的时序信息,进一步构建序列到序列的预测结构,协调历史和预测时刻输入特征维度不一致的问题,输出未来15 min~4 h的风电功率预测序列。实验结果表明,所提方法在风电数据含缺失值的情景下,与传统的缺失值处理和预测方法相比,具有更高的预测精度和更稳定的预测性能。
The data set used in wind power prediction may have different degrees of data loss. Since the processing of missing values is often independent of prediction model training
it is impossible to fully use the time-series correlation characteristics of actual data to improve the prediction effect. Therefore
an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method is proposed considering dynamic interpolation of missing values of time-series features. Aiming at the problem of missing values in time series data
a gated recurrent unit embedded with a time-delay attenuation interpolation strategy is designed to dynamically capture the irregular time-delay relationship between the observations before and after the missing values in time series of the input feature. The autocorrelation analysis with mask determines the optimal time window length of the input features and the initial parameters of the time-delay attenuation rate function. Based on the temporal information extracted by the gated recurrent unit
the sequence-to-sequence prediction structure is constructed to coordinate the inconsistency in input feature dimensions between the historical and the prediction time points
and the wind power prediction sequence is output in the next 15 min~4 h. The experimental results show that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy and more stable prediction performance than the traditional missing value processing and prediction methods in the case of time series features with missing values for wind power prediction.
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