未来能源技术展望

龙潇; 张晋宾; 陈令特

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.25090

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未来能源技术展望

新型电力系统 | 更新时间：2026-06-29

- 未来能源技术展望
- Prospects for Future Energy Technologies
- 发电技术 2025年46卷第4期页码：651-693
- 作者机构：
  
  1.三峡国际能源投资集团有限公司，北京市通州区 101109
  2.电力规划设计总院，北京市西城区 100120
- 作者简介：
  
  龙潇(1989)，女，硕士，高级经济师，研究方向为发电技术与能源投资管理，long_xiao@ctg.com.cn；
  张晋宾(1967)，男，硕士，正高级工程师，研究方向为电力技术、数字技术及智库管理等，jbzhang@eppei.com；
  陈令特(1996)，男，博士，工程师，研究方向为海上新能源发电技术，ltchen@eppei.com。
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.25090
  中图分类号： TK 01
- 收稿：2025-02-20，
  
  修回：2025-05-26，
  
  纸质出版：2025-08-31
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
龙潇,张晋宾,陈令特.未来能源技术展望[J].发电技术,2025,46(04):651-693.

LONG Xiao,ZHANG Jinbin,CHEN Lingte.Prospects for Future Energy Technologies[J].Power Generation Technology,2025,46(04):651-693.
龙潇,张晋宾,陈令特.未来能源技术展望[J].发电技术,2025,46(04):651-693. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.25090.

LONG Xiao,ZHANG Jinbin,CHEN Lingte.Prospects for Future Energy Technologies[J].Power Generation Technology,2025,46(04):651-693. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.25090.

摘要

目的

发展未来能源不仅是当前国际竞争的焦点，也是我国构建新型能源体系、高质量推进中国式现代化建设的必由之路。基于此，探讨了未来能源技术类别、研究现状以及未来发展趋势，旨在为相关领域的研究和政策制定提供参考。

方法

基于国际权威机构报告及全球典型项目数据，采用多维度分析方法，系统介绍了绿色低碳电源、生物能、合成烃燃料及氢能的全球研发现状。通过技术成熟度分级框架，结合经济性指标、政策支持力度及商业化案例，重点解析了各技术路线的关键突破、应用瓶颈与协同潜力，并构建了跨技术类别的能源转型路线图谱。

结果

随着技术进步和政策支持力度增大，可再生能源在电力结构中的占比得到显著提升，成为主要电源的进程持续加快。同时，生物能、氢能、合成烃燃料、可控核聚变等新兴技术的发展将为能源转型提供新的解决方案。

结论

研究结果为推动能源绿色低碳转型提供了科学依据，对能源领域相关人员研究和制定相关政策具有重要参考价值。

Abstract

Objectives

Developing future energy is both a current focus of international competition and an essential pathway for China to build a new-type energy system and advance Chinese-style modernization with high-quality development. Therefore

this study explores the categories

research status

and future development trends of energy technologies

aiming to provide references for research and policy making in related fields.

Methods

Based on reports from international authoritative institutions and data from typical global projects

multidimensional analysis methods are used to systematically introduce the global R&D status of green low-carbon power sources

bioenergy

synthetic hydrocarbon fuels

and hydrogen energy. Through the technology readiness level framework

combined with economic indicators

policy support

and commercial case studies

this study focuses on analyzing the key breakthroughs

application bottlenecks

and synergistic potential of different technological pathways

and establishes a systematic cross-technological roadmap for energy transition.

Results

Driven by technological advancements and policy support increase

the proportion of renewable energy in the power structure has significantly increased

accelerating the transition toward becoming the main power source. Additionally

the development of emerging technologies including bioenergy

hydrogen energy

synthetic hydrocarbon fuels

and controlled nuclear fusion will provide new solutions for energy transition.

Conclusions

The findings provide a scientific basis for promoting green and low-carbon energy transition

offering important references for researchers and policymakers in the energy field.

关键词

Keywords

references

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高虎，刘凡，李海．碳中和目标下氨燃料的机遇、挑战及应用前景 [J ] ．发电技术， 2022 ， 43 ( 3 )： 462 - 467 ． doi: 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.22059 http://dx.doi.org/10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.22059

GAO H ， LIU F ， LI H ． Opportunities，challenges and application prospects of ammonia fuel under the target of carbon neutrality [J ] ． Power Generation Technology ， 2022 ， 43 ( 3 )： 462 - 467 ． doi: 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.22059 http://dx.doi.org/10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.22059

ABNEWSWIRE ． Ocean Power Market to Worth USD 4 ，825.5 Million by 2032 Amid Growing Focus on Renewable Marine Energy and Smart Grid Integration [EB/OL ] ．( 2025-06-17 ) [ 2025-07-05 ] ． https://www.abnewswire.com/pressreleases/ocean-power-market-to-worth-usd-48255-million-by-2032-amid-growing-focus-on-renewable-marine-energy-and-smart-grid-integration_747738.html https://www.abnewswire.com/pressreleases/ocean-power-market-to-worth-usd-48255-million-by-2032-amid-growing-focus-on-renewable-marine-energy-and-smart-grid-integration_747738.html ．

寇凌峰，季宇，曲雪原，等．含海洋能发电的海岛微网源荷储容量优化配置研究 [J ] ．电测与仪表， 2024 ， 61 ( 5 )： 135 - 145 ．

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IEA ． Biofuels [EB/OL ] ．[ 2024-12-31 ] ． https://www.iea.org/energy-system/low-emission-fuels/biofuels https://www.iea.org/energy-system/low-emission-fuels/biofuels ．

Precedence Research ． Biodiesel market size，share，and trends 2024 to 2034 [R/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-16 ] ． https://www.precedenceresearch.com/ biodiesel-market https://www.precedenceresearch.com/biodiesel-market ．

Global Growth Insights ． Synthetic kerosene market size，share，growth，and industry analysis [R/OL ] ．( 2025-06-16 )[ 2025-07-05 ] ． https://www.globalgrowthin sights.com/market-reports/synthetic-kerosene-market-113902 https://www.globalgrowthinsights.com/market-reports/synthetic-kerosene-market-113902 ．

Fortune Business Insights ． Biomethane market size，share & industry analysis ： 2025 - 2032 [R/OL ] ．( 2025-06-16 )[ 2025-07-05 ] ． https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/bio-methane-market-100272 https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/bio-methane-market-100272 ．

Precedence Research ． Bioethanol Market Size，Share，and Trends 2025 to 2034 [R/OL ] ．( 2025-05-07 )[ 2025-07-05 ] ． https://www.precedenceresearch.com/bioethanol-market https://www.precedenceresearch.com/bioethanol-market ．

Imarc ． Biogas market report [R/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-18 ] ． https://www.imarcgroup.com/biogas -market https://www.imarcgroup.com/biogas-market ．

RUTH J C ， STEPHANOPOULOS G ． Synthetic fuels：what are they and where do they come from？ [J ] ． Current Opinion in Biotechnology ， 2023 ， 81 ： 102919 ． doi: 10.1016/j.copbio.2023.102919 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.copbio.2023.102919

Prescient & Strategic Intelligence ． Syntheitc fuels market size & share analysis-trends，drivers，competitive landscape，and forecasts ( 2024-2030 )[R/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-19 ] ． https://www.psmarket research.com/market- analysis/synthetic-fuels-market-report https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/synthetic-fuels-market-report ．

Gas Outlook ． Tokyo plan to decarbonise city gas faces hurdles [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-19 ] ． https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/tokyo-plan-to-decarbonise-city-gas-faces-hurdles/ https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/tokyo-plan-to-decarbonise-city-gas-faces-hurdles/ ．

Kanadevia ． Methane synthesis test facility for effective utilization of CO 2 completed and commissioning started for full-scale operation [EB/OL ] ．( 2019-10-16 )[ 2025-01-19 ] ． https://www.kanadevia.com/english/newsroom/news/release/2019/20191016_001376.html https://www.kanadevia.com/english/newsroom/news/release/2019/20191016_001376.html ．

Bioerergy International ． Sunfire to build 8 000 tonne-per-annum power-to-liquid facility in Norway[EB/OL ] ．( 2017-07-18 )[ 2025-01-20 ] ． https://bioenergyinternational.com/sunfire-build-8-000-tonne-per-annum-power-liquid-facility-norway/ https://bioenergyinternational.com/sunfire-build-8-000-tonne-per-annum-power-liquid-facility-norway/ ．

ZOLLER S ， KOEPF E ， NIZAMIAN D ， et al ． A solar tower fuel plant for the thermochemical production of kerosene from H 2 O and CO 2 [J ] ． Joule ， 2022 ， 6 ( 7 )： 1606 - 1616 ． doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2022.06.012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.06.012

Topsector Energie ． Industrial DME via sorption-enhanced DME synthesis (SEDMES) [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-22 ] ． https://projecten.top sectorenergie.nl/projecten/industrial-dme-via-sorption-enhanced-dme-synthesis-se-dmes-36319 https://projecten.topsectorenergie.nl/projecten/industrial-dme-via-sorption-enhanced-dme-synthesis-se-dmes-36319 ．

汪飞，喻梦伊，陈良勇．氢能产业技术经济性分析及展望 [J ] ．电力科技与环保， 2024 ， 40 ( 5 )： 445 - 454 ． doi: 10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2024.05.001 http://dx.doi.org/10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2024.05.001

WANG F ， YU M Y ， CHEN L Y ． Technical and economic analysis and outlook of hydrogen energy industry [J ] ． Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection ， 2024 ， 40 ( 5 )： 445 - 454 ． doi: 10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2024.05.001 http://dx.doi.org/10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2024.05.001

IEA ． Global hydrogen review 2024 [R ] ． Paris ： IEA ， 2024 ．

Topsoe ． eREACT™ Hydrogen：the future of blue hydrogen [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-25 ] ． https:// www.topsoe.com/our-resources/knowledge/our-products/equipment/ereact-hydrogen https://www.topsoe.com/our-resources/knowledge/our-products/equipment/ereact-hydrogen ． doi: 10.1002/9780470473795.ch16 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470473795.ch16

HyPER ． This project will develop，install a MW scale pilot plant to demonstrate SE-SMR and GTI’s compact hydrogen generator [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-25 ] ． https://hyperh2.co.uk/the-project/ https://hyperh2.co.uk/the-project/ ．

Saskatchewan ． Saskatchewan announces first-of-its-kind hydrogen project in the world [EB/OL ] ．( 2020-06-24 )[ 2025-01-25 ] ． https://www.saskatchewan.ca/govern-ment/news-and-media/2020/june/24/hydrogen-production-project https://www.saskatchewan.ca/govern-ment/news-and-media/2020/june/24/hydrogen-production-project ．

ARENA ． World-first project to turn biogas from sewage into hydrogen and graphite [EB/OL ] ．( 2019-09-02 )[ 2025-01-26 ] ． https://arena.gov.au/news/world-first-project-to-turn-biogas-from-sewage-into-hydrogen-and-graphite/ https://arena.gov.au/news/world-first-project-to-turn-biogas-from-sewage-into-hydrogen-and-graphite/ ．

Graforce ． Methan-plasmalyzer® [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-26 ] ． https://www.graforce.com/produkte/methan-plasmalyzer https://www.graforce.com/produkte/methan-plasmalyzer ．

ColdSpark ． Cold methane pyrolysis [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-26 ] ． https://coldspark.eu/ https://coldspark.eu/ ．

Ekona ． Rapid-to-deploy clean hydrogen production， driven by combustion [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-01-26 ] ． https://ekonapower.com/technology/ https://ekonapower.com/technology/ ．

张春雁，窦真兰，王俊，等．电解水制氢-储氢-供氢在电力系统中的发展路线 [J ] ．发电技术， 2023 ， 44 ( 3 )： 305 - 317 ．

ZHANG C Y ， DOU Z L ， WANG J ， et al ． Development route of hydrogen production by water electrolysis，hydrogen storage and hydrogen supply in power system [J ] ． Power Generation Technology ， 2023 ， 44 ( 3 )： 305 - 317 ．

宋洁，郜捷，梁丹曦，等．质子交换膜电解制氢系统建模研究综述 [J ] ．电力建设， 2024 ， 45 ( 2 )： 58 - 78 ． doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.02.006 http://dx.doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.02.006

SONG J ， GAO J ， LIANG D X ， et al ． A review on modeling of hydrogen production system with proton exchange membrane electrolysis [J ] ． Electric Power Construction ， 2024 ， 45 ( 2 )： 58 - 78 ． doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.02.006 http://dx.doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.02.006

Bloom energy ． Bloom energy demonstrates hydrogen production with the world’s most efficient electrolyzer and largest solid oxide system [EB/OL ] ．( 2023-05-03 ) [ 2025-02-07 ] ． https://newsroom.bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-demonstrates-hydrogen-production-with-the-worlds-largest-and-most-efficient-solid-oxide-electrolyzer https://newsroom.bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-demonstrates-hydrogen-production-with-the-worlds-largest-and-most-efficient-solid-oxide-electrolyzer ．

Topsoe ． Topsoe celebrates milestone in construction of world’s first industrial scale SOEC electrolyzer facility [EB/OL ] ．( 2023-05-01 ) [ 2025-02-07 ] ． https://www.topsoe.com/press- releases/topsoe-celebrates-milestone-in-construction-of-worlds-first-industrial-scale-soec-ele-ctrolyzer-facility https://www.topsoe.com/press-releases/topsoe-celebrates-milestone-in-construction-of-worlds-first-industrial-scale-soec-ele-ctrolyzer-facility ．

张哲宇，刘力，吴潇雨，等．计及海水制氢与生物质转化的海岛微能网随机调度优化模型 [J ] ．智慧电力， 2024 ， 52 ( 8 )： 64 - 72 ．

ZHANG Z Y ， LIU L ， WU X Y ， et al ． Optimization model of island micro-energy grid stochastic scheduling considering seawater hydrogen production and biomass conversion [J ] ． Smart Power ， 2024 ， 52 ( 8 )： 64 - 72 ．

GUO J X ， ZHENG Y ， HU Z P ， et al ． Direct seawater electrolysis by adjusting the local reaction environment of a catalyst [J ] ． Nature Energy ， 2023 ， 8 ( 3 )： 264 - 272 ．

Revel ． CONCEPT [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-02-11 ] ． https://www.reveal-storage.eu/concept https://www.reveal-storage.eu/concept ．

B&W ． BrightLoop™ low-carbon hydrogen production [EB/OL ] ．[ 2025-02-13 ] ． https://www.babcock.com/home/environmental/decarbonization/low-carbon-hydro gen/ https://www.babcock.com/home/environmental/decarbonization/low-carbon-hydrogen/ ． doi: 10.1002/9781119982203.ch7 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119982203.ch7

清华大学．核能制氢 [EB/OL ] ．( 2024-04-20 )[ 2025-02-14 ] ． https://www.inet.tsinghua.edu.cn/zdxm/xnyyj/hnzq.htm https://www.inet.tsinghua.edu.cn/zdxm/xnyyj/hnzq.htm ．

Tsinghua University ． Nuclear hydrogen production [EB/ OL ] ．( 2024-04-20 )[ 2025-02-14 ] ． https://www.inet https://www.inet . tsinghua . edu . cn/zdxm/xnyyj/hnzq.htm ．

Gold hydrogen ． Timely boost for new drill program [EB/OL ] ．( 2025-02-05 )[ 2025-02-14 ] ． https://www.goldhydrogen.com.au/updates/timely-boost-for-new-drill-program/ https://www.goldhydrogen.com.au/updates/timely-boost-for-new-drill-program/ ．

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