EN2021年我国电力供需形势分析及展望
Analysis and Prospect of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2021
- 发电技术 2021年42卷第5期 页码：568-575
- 作者机构：
国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京市 昌平区 102209
- 作者简介：
[ "汲国强(1986), 男, 博士, 高级工程师, 从事能源经济及电力供需分析预测方面的研究工作, jgqiang05@126.com" ]
[ "吴姗姗(1985), 女, 博士, 高级经济师, 从事电力市场及宏观经济分析预测、电力需求与经济发展关系等研究, wushanshan@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn" ]
[ "谭显东(1979), 男, 博士, 教授级高工, 从事电力供需分析预测、需求侧管理、能源经济等研究, tanxiandong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn" ]
[ "单葆国(1971), 男, 硕士, 教授级高工, 从事能源经济模型、电力市场分析预测、电力需求与经济发展关系、电力需求侧管理等研究, shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn" ]
- 基金信息：
DOI：10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.21103
中图分类号： TK01收稿：2021-08-24，
纸质出版：2021-10-31
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
汲国强, 吴姗姗, 谭显东, 等. 2021年我国电力供需形势分析及展望[J]. 发电技术, 2021,42(5):568-575.
Guoqiang JI, Shanshan WU, Xiandong TAN, et al. Analysis and Prospect of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2021[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2021, 42(5): 568-575.
汲国强, 吴姗姗, 谭显东, 等. 2021年我国电力供需形势分析及展望[J]. 发电技术, 2021,42(5):568-575. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.21103.
Guoqiang JI, Shanshan WU, Xiandong TAN, et al. Analysis and Prospect of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2021[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2021, 42(5): 568-575. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.21103.
摘要
影响我国电力供需的不确定因素日益增多，研判2021年电力供需形势对于保障我国经济社会平稳健康发展具有重要意义。为此，梳理了影响2021年我国电力需求、电力供应的主要因素，从国际经济、国内经济、重点行业、气候气温、电能替代等方面分析了对电力供需的影响；对2021年我国经济走势、电力需求、电力供应进行了预测，并在此基础上综合研判全国及各区域电力供需形势。预计2021年我国全社会用电量将达到8.22万亿kW·h，增速显著反弹；2021年底，全国发电装机容量将达到23.7亿kW，其中新能源装机占比有望超过1/4；2021年我国电力供需形势总体平衡，华中等部分地区用电高峰时段可能存在电力供需紧张。
Abstract
There are more and more uncertain factors affecting the power supply and demand situation in China. Studying and judging the power supply and demand situation in 2021 is of great significance to ensure the stable and healthy development of China's economy and society. Therefore
this paper combed the main factors affecting China's power demand and power supply in 2021
and analyzed the impact on power supply and demand from the aspects of international economy
domestic economy
key industries
climate and temperature
and power substitution. The economic trend
power demand and power supply of China in 2021 were forecasted
and on this basis
the national and regional power supply and demand situation were comprehensively studied and judged. It is estimated that the power consumption of the whole society in China will reach 8.22 trillion kW·h in 2021
and the growth rate will rebound significantly. By the end of 2021
the installed capacity of power generation in China is expected to reach 2.37 billion kW
of which the installed capacity of new energy is expected to account for more than 1/4. Moreover
the power supply and demand situation of China will be generally balanced in 2021
and there may be power supply and demand tension during peak hours in Central China and other regions.
关键词
Keywords
references
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