我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型

谢国辉; 李娜娜; 元博

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174

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我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型

新能源 | 更新时间：2025-07-04

- 我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型
- Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China
- 发电技术 2020年41卷第6期页码：631-637
- 作者机构：
  
  国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京市昌平区 102209
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "谢国辉(1981), 男, 博士, 高级工程师, 研究方向为新能源发展规划、新能源运行消纳等, xieguohui@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn" ]
  [ "李娜娜(1989), 女, 博士, 中级经济师, 主要从事新能源战略与规划、新能源产业政策、新能源资源评估等领域的研究" ]
  [ "元博(1987), 男, 博士, 高级工程师, 长期从事储能、能源电力规划、新能源消纳等领域研究工作" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目(71471058)
- DOI：10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174
  中图分类号： TK81;TM73
- 收稿：2020-05-20，
  
  纸质出版：2020-12-31
- 稿件说明：
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谢国辉, 李娜娜, 元博. 我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型[J]. 发电技术, 2020,41(6):631-637.

Guohui XIE, Nana LI, Bo YUAN. Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2020, 41(6): 631-637.
谢国辉, 李娜娜, 元博. 我国新能源开发路线图分析方法及模型[J]. 发电技术, 2020,41(6):631-637. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174.

Guohui XIE, Nana LI, Bo YUAN. Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2020, 41(6): 631-637. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174.

摘要

为科学制定我国中长期新能源发展规划，需要开展新能源开发路线图研究。根据我国能源发展战略和新能源发展的特点，建立了开发总量规模测算、开发时序编制、开发布局优化相应的分析模型，提出了涵盖新能源资源潜力评估、开发总量规模、开发时序、开发布局的一整套开发路线图分析方法，并实证分析了2030/2050年我国风电、光伏发电、光热发电的开发总量、时序和布局。研究结果表明：未来我国新能源仍将加快大规模发展，2030年后新能源将从替代能源向主导电源转变，风电布局将主要集中在“三北”地区，太阳能发电呈现出集中式开发和分布式利用相结合的特点。

Abstract

Studying on new energy developing roadmap helps to provide the important reference for the formulation of medium and long-term development plan of new energy in China. This paper put forward a set of analysis methods and models of development roadmap involving resources evaluations

total capacity

developing sequences and layout according to energy development strategy and characteristics of new energy development in China. The wind

photovoltaic and photothermal power generation developing capacity sequences and layout in 2030 and 2050 were also studied. The results show that there will be a rapid speed for China's new energy development

pushing the new energy to become the dominated power after 2030. Wind power will be concentered in "Three North" areas

while the solar power presents a combination of centralized development and distributed utilization.

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references

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