中国电力消费不均衡性变化及时空演化机理分析

刘添; 张士宁; 翁宇威; 张超义; 刘通明

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508055

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中国电力消费不均衡性变化及时空演化机理分析

智能-绿色-韧性：面向2035的新型电力系统技术与市场融合 | 更新时间：2026-07-01

- 中国电力消费不均衡性变化及时空演化机理分析
- Analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of electricity consumption inequality in China
- 中国电力 2026年59卷第6期页码：13-23
- 作者机构：
  
  全球能源互联网集团有限公司,北京,100031
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金资助项目（72371102）。
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508055
  中图分类号：
- 网络首发：2026-06-22，
  
  纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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刘添, 张士宁, 翁宇威, 张超义, 刘通明. 中国电力消费不均衡性变化及时空演化机理分析[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(6): 13-23.

LIU Tian, ZHANG Shining, WENG Yuwei, et al. Analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of electricity consumption inequality in China[J]. 2026, 59(6): 13-23.
刘添, 张士宁, 翁宇威, 张超义, 刘通明. 中国电力消费不均衡性变化及时空演化机理分析[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(6): 13-23. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508055.

LIU Tian, ZHANG Shining, WENG Yuwei, et al. Analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of electricity consumption inequality in China[J]. 2026, 59(6): 13-23. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508055.

摘要

能源转型需要兼顾公平，能源公平是联合国可持续发展目标的核心诉求。从人口和地区面积的双重视角计算电力消费的基尼系数，量化评估电力消费不均衡性的时空演化趋势，采用贝叶斯线性回归模型识别其关键驱动因素。研究发现，中国及全球电力消费不公平程度存在显著差异，中国电力快速发展对全球用电不均衡性改善发挥了重要作用。电力消费重心先后呈现“南移–西进–稳定”的态势，重心西移驱动电力消费基尼系数下降。GDP和城镇化率与电力消费分布均衡化呈正相关，高压及以上输电线路扩张在跨区域资源调配中发挥作用。基于关键驱动因素分析，提出了以经济激活、差距削减、技术赋能、体制破除为抓手的促进电力消费均衡发展的多维路径。

Abstract

Energy transition needs to balance equity

which is a core demand of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. From the dual perspectives of population and regional area

this study calculates the Gini coefficient of electricity consumption to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal evolution of electricity consumption inequality

and employs a Bayesian linear regression model to identify its key driving factors. The findings indicate that significant disparities exist in the level of electricity consumption inequality between China and the global average

with China's rapid power development playing a crucial role in mitigating global electricity consumption inequality. The gravity center of electricity consumption has shown a trend of "shifting south – advancing west – stabilization" in turn

with the westward movement driving a decline in the Gini coefficient of electricity consumption. GDP and urbanization rate are positively correlated with the equalization of electricity consumption distribution

and the expansion of transmission lines of high-voltage and above has played a role in cross-regional resource allocation. Based on the analysis of key driving factors

a multidimensional development path for promoting the balanced development of electricity consumption is proposed

which takes economic activation

gap reduction

technological empowerment

and institutional reform as the key measures.

关键词

Keywords

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