时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型

李露露; 何姣

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508025

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时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型

新能源与储能 | 更新时间：2026-04-30

- 时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型
- Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag
- 中国电力 2026年59卷第4期页码：114-126
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 湖南农业大学商学院,湖南,长沙,410128
  2. 湖南理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南,岳阳,414006
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家社会科学基金青年资助项目（22CJY064）;湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会资助项目（XSP22YBZ071）。
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508025
  中图分类号：
- 网络首发：2026-04-20，
  
  纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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李露露, 何姣. 时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 114-126.

LI Lulu, HE Jiao. Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag[J]. 2026, 59(4): 114-126.
李露露, 何姣. 时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 114-126. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508025.

LI Lulu, HE Jiao. Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag[J]. 2026, 59(4): 114-126. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508025.

摘要

电力绿色低碳转型是助力中国式现代化发展的重要支撑。以2015—2023年中国30个省级行政区为研究样本，采用考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率数据包络分析法（slacks-based measure，SBM）-Malmquist指数模型测度电力绿色低碳转型效率。研究发现，基于考虑时滞效应的电力产出修正分析测算，可再生能源电力消纳量、电能占终端能源消费比重滞后期分别为1期和3期。能源价格机制完善和城镇化水平提升对电力绿色低碳转型发挥了显著的正向驱动作用，其积极效果远大于经济发展和产业结构所带来的负向抑制效应。在外部环境影响下，电力绿色低碳转型综合效率均值存在高估现象，调整后的真实效率水平呈现“西部＞东部＞中部”的空间分布特征，且省际差异显著。电力绿色低碳转型全要素生产率呈“先升后降”的波动趋势，技术进步的拉动作用缓解了技术效率偏低带来的负面制约。

Abstract

The green and low-carbon transformation of China's power sector serves as a crucial underpinning for advancing Chinese modernization. Taking 30 provinces

autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government of China from 2015 to 2023 as the research sample

this paper employs a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist index model that accounts for output lags to measure the efficiency of the green and low-carbon transformation of the power sector. The findings reveal that

based on the revised analysis of power output considering the time lag effect

the lag periods of renewable energy power consumption and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption are 1 period and 3 periods respectively. Energy pricing mechanism refinement and urbanization progression have exerted a significant positive driving effect on the green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power sector

with their beneficial impacts substantially outweighing the negative inhibitory effects stemming from economic development stages and industrial structure. The external factors leads to an overestimation of the average comprehensive efficiency of green and low-carbon transformation in the power sector. Additionally

the recalibrated actual efficiency level demonstrates a spatial distribution pattern of West ＞ East ＞ Central

with notable inter-provincial differences. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the power sector's green and low-carbon transformation exhibits a fluctuating trend

and the pulling effect of technological advancements has mitigated the negative constraints caused by low technical efficiency.

关键词

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