考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法

陆建宇; 张凯旋; 李建华; 王月; 周毅; 申建建

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506064

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考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法

大规模水风光基地联合规划与广域互补运行优化技术 | 更新时间：2026-04-30

- 考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法
- Medium-term optimal dispatching method for wind–solar–hydro–thermal multi-energy complementary regional power system considering wind and solar power uncertainties
- 中国电力 2026年59卷第4期页码：24-34
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国家电网有限公司华东分部,上海,200120
  2. 大连理工大学建设工程学院,辽宁,大连,116024
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家电网有限公司华东分部科技项目（52992424001V）。
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506064
  中图分类号：
- 网络首发：2026-04-20，
  
  纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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陆建宇, 张凯旋, 李建华, 王月, 周毅, 申建建. 考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 24-34.

LU Jianyu, ZHANG Kaixuan, LI Jianhua, et al. Medium-term optimal dispatching method for wind–solar–hydro–thermal multi-energy complementary regional power system considering wind and solar power uncertainties[J]. 2026, 59(4): 24-34.
陆建宇, 张凯旋, 李建华, 王月, 周毅, 申建建. 考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 24-34. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506064.

LU Jianyu, ZHANG Kaixuan, LI Jianhua, et al. Medium-term optimal dispatching method for wind–solar–hydro–thermal multi-energy complementary regional power system considering wind and solar power uncertainties[J]. 2026, 59(4): 24-34. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506064.

摘要

新能源高渗透率下，电网连续多日的安全稳定运行受大规模风光日间出力的波动性及不确定性影响日益显著，保供难度加剧。提出考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法，采用协方差矩阵表征风光发电预测误差的时变特性，融合混合高斯抽样生成风光出力场景集，利用条件抽样策略保留预测误差统计特性并合理缩减场景；以全网缺电与弃电平方和最小、火电运行成本最小为目标，构建了风光水火互补运行多目标优化模型，提出分层权重优化方法兼顾目标优先级和各目标相对重要性，实现了高效求解。依托华东电网实际数据仿真，结果表明：与常规方法相比，所提方法可使系统整体缺电降低33.3%以上，同时保证了较高的网调计划可靠性，日最大缺电、弃电仅占负荷的1.3%、1.7%，为新能源高渗透率下电网连续多日的调度计划安排提供了有效途径。

Abstract

Under the high penetration of new energy sources

the stable operation of the power grids over multiple consecutive days is increasingly affected by the volatility and uncertainty of large-scale wind and solar power output during the daytime

which exacerbates the difficulty of power supply guarantee. This paper proposes a medium-term optimal dispatching method for wind-solar-hydro-thermal multi-energy complementary regional power grids considering the uncertainty of wind and solar power generation. The covariance matrix is adopted to characterize the time-varying characteristics of the wind and solar power generation prediction errors

and the hybrid Gaussian sampling is integrated to generate the scenario set of wind and solar power output. Meanwhile

a conditional sampling strategy is utilized to retain the statistical characteristics of the prediction errors while reasonably reducing the number of scenarios. With the objectives of minimizing the sum of squares of grid-wide power shortage and curtailment as well as minimizing the thermal power operating cost

a multi-objective optimization model for wind-PV-hydro-thermal complementary operation is established. A hierarchical weight optimization method is proposed to balance the target priorities and the relative importance of each objective

thus achieving efficient solution. Simulation scheduling based on the actual data of East China Power Grid shows that

compared with conventional methods

the proposed method can reduce the overall power shortage of the system by more than 33.3%

while ensuring high reliability of grid dispatching plans. The daily maximum power shortage/curtailment only accounts for 1.3% and 1.7% of the load

respectively

which provides an effective approach for the formulation of multi-day consecutive dispatching plans of power grids under high renewable energy penetration.

关键词

Keywords

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