考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法

翁格平; 崔林宁; 江涵; 任娇蓉; 韩寅峰; 陈晗文

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044

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考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法

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- 考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法
- A long-term power generation investment decision-making method considering carbon emission impacts
- 中国电力 2026年59卷第4期页码：94-104
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网浙江省电力有限公司宁波供电公司,浙江,宁波,315000
  2. 宁波送变电建设有限公司甬城配电网建设分公司,浙江,宁波,315000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家电网有限公司科技项目（模型与数据驱动的电网调度控制系统图形自动构建关键技术研究与应用，5211NB23000U）。
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044
  中图分类号：
- 网络首发：2026-04-20，
  
  纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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翁格平, 崔林宁, 江涵, 任娇蓉, 韩寅峰, 陈晗文. 考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 94-104.

WENG Geping, CUI Linning, JIANG Han, et al. A long-term power generation investment decision-making method considering carbon emission impacts[J]. 2026, 59(4): 94-104.
翁格平, 崔林宁, 江涵, 任娇蓉, 韩寅峰, 陈晗文. 考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 94-104. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044.

WENG Geping, CUI Linning, JIANG Han, et al. A long-term power generation investment decision-making method considering carbon emission impacts[J]. 2026, 59(4): 94-104. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044.

摘要

针对新型电力系统的低碳转型发展需求，建立了一种长期发电投资决策分析模型。首先，该模型考虑了处于价格主导地位的传统发电的战略型决策，以及新加入市场的可再生能源发电等价格接受者的完全竞争型决策，以满足长期碳减排约束。其次，采用了基于纳什-古诺博弈的集中二次规划方法来分析日前电力市场价格。然后，在所提模型中，同时做出投资决策（每年一次）和生产决策（年内的每个时间段），并对此建立开环古诺博弈模型。最后，在模拟电力市场中对所提方法进行性能评估，进行了为期20年的博弈测试，并分析了一系列场景下的价格和投资决策，以及市场参与者数量、排放限制或排放政策影响。结果表明，应用所提方法可以实现系统深度去碳化，验证了方法的有效性。

Abstract

To meet the demand for low-carbon transition of new power systems

this paper develops a long-term decision-making analysis model for power generation investment. First

the model considers the strategic decision-making of conventional price-leading generation

as well as the perfectly competitive decision-making of newly market-entering renewable generation as price-takers

to satisfy the long-term carbon emission reduction constraints. Second

a centralized quadratic programming approach based on the Nash-Gounod game is used to analyze the day-ahead electricity market prices. Then

in the proposed model

investment decisions (once a year) and production decisions (in each time period within a year) are made simultaneously

and an open-loop Gounod game model is built accordingly. Finally

the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in a simulated electricity market

where the game is tested over a period of up to 20 years

and the price and investment decisions under a series of scenarios

as well as the impacts of the number of market participants

emission limits

or emission policies

are analyzed. The results show that the application of the proposed method can achieve deep system decarbonization

which verifies its effectiveness.

关键词

Keywords

references

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