基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划

唐伟; 徐朝; 单葆国; 张煜; 吴鹏; 贾跃龙; 张春成; 谭清坤

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159

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基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划

能源安全新战略路径设计与规划推演关键技术专栏 | 更新时间：2025-06-18

- 基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划
- Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries
- 中国电力 2021年54卷第7期页码：36-45
- 作者机构：
  
  国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "唐伟(1977—)，女，硕士，高级工程师，从事电能替代、节能节电、电力需求侧管理等方面研究，E-mail：tangwei@sgeri.sgcc.com" ]
  [ "徐朝(1991—)，女，通信作者，博士，从事电力供需研究，E-mail：xuzhao1@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家电网公司科技项目(我国多区域能源供需综合分析预测模型体系研究及开发，52060018000T)
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2020-05-21，
  
  修回：2020-10-24，
  
  纸质出版：2021-07-05
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
唐伟, 徐朝, 单葆国, 等. 基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划[J]. 中国电力, 2021,54(7):36-45.

Wei TANG, Zhao XU, Baoguo SHAN, et al. Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries[J]. Electric power, 2021, 54(7): 36-45.
唐伟, 徐朝, 单葆国, 等. 基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划[J]. 中国电力, 2021,54(7):36-45. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159.

Wei TANG, Zhao XU, Baoguo SHAN, et al. Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries[J]. Electric power, 2021, 54(7): 36-45. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159.

摘要

“电能替代”战略的实施，推动了能源发展方式的转变，对中国未来能源高质量发展起到了至关重要的作用。首先对中国终端能源消费及能源供应情况进行分析，梳理了电能替代发展现状，提出了基于行业用能特征的电能替代基准年理论潜力测算模型。其次，耦合规划期政策、技术等因素，提出了“十四五”期间电能替代潜力测算方法。再次，基于潜力测算提出“十四五”期间替代电量规划方法。最后预判电能替代发展趋势。依托该模型方法，预判“十四五”期间国网经营区电能替代潜力超1万亿kW·h，替代规划电量约

5000

亿kW·h。研究可为政府部门出台相关政策、电网企业科学开展电能替代工作提供支撑。

Abstract

The implementation of "electric energy substitution" strategy has pushed forward the transformation of energy development mode and will play a crucial role in the future high-quality development of China's energy sector. Firstly

we investigate the existing situation of China's terminal energy consumption and energy supply and the development status quo of electric energy substitution. On this basis

a theoretical potential calculation model of electric energy substitution is proposed based on the characteristics of industrial energy consumption. Secondly

considering the policy

technology and other factors in the planning period

a calculation method of electric energy substitution potential is designed for the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. Thirdly

based on the potential calculation

a planning method of electric energy substitution is proposed for the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. Finally

the development prospect of electric energy substitution is forecasted. Based on the proposed model and methods

it is predicted that the electric energy substitution potential in the operation area of State Grid will exceed 100 billion kW·h

and the planned electric energy substitution will be around 500 billion kW·h during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. This study can provide a theoretical support for government departments to formulate relevant policies and for the power grid enterprises to implement alternative energy work.

关键词

Keywords

references

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