Jingjing Xu, Ziniu Xiao, Zhaohui Lin, 等. System bias correction of short-term hub-height wind forecasts using the Kalman filter[J]. 现代电力系统保护与控制(英文), 2021,6(4).
Jingjing Xu, Ziniu Xiao, Zhaohui Lin, et al. System bias correction of short-term hub-height wind forecasts using the Kalman filter[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2021, 6(4).
Jingjing Xu, Ziniu Xiao, Zhaohui Lin, 等. System bias correction of short-term hub-height wind forecasts using the Kalman filter[J]. 现代电力系统保护与控制(英文), 2021,6(4).DOI: 10.1186/s41601-021-00214-x.
Jingjing Xu, Ziniu Xiao, Zhaohui Lin, et al. System bias correction of short-term hub-height wind forecasts using the Kalman filter[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2021, 6(4).DOI: 10.1186/s41601-021-00214-x.
System bias correction of short-term hub-height wind forecasts using the Kalman filter
Wind energy is a fluctuating source for power systems
which poses challenges to grid planning for the wind power industry. To improve the short-term wind forecasts at turbine height
the bias correction approach Kalman filter (KF) is applied to 72-h wind speed forecasts from the WRF model in Zhangbei wind farm for a period over two years. The KF approach shows a remarkable ability in improving the raw forecasts by decreasing the root-mean-square error by 16% from 3.58 to 3.01 m s−1
the mean absolute error by 14% from 2.71 to 2.34 m s−1
the bias from 0.22 to − 0.19 m s−1
and improving the correlation from 0.58 to 0.66. The KF significantly reduces random errors of the model
showing the capability to deal with the forecast errors associated with physical processes which cannot be accurately handled by the numerical model. In addition
the improvement of the bias correction is larger for wind speeds sensitive to wind power generation. So the KF approach is suitable for short-term wind power prediction.