Mokhtar Bozorg, Antonio Bracale, Pierluigi Caramia, et al. Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression forprobabilistic photovoltaic powerforecasting[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2020, 5(3).
Mokhtar Bozorg, Antonio Bracale, Pierluigi Caramia, et al. Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression forprobabilistic photovoltaic powerforecasting[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2020, 5(3).DOI: 10.1186/s41601-020-00167-7.
Photovoltaic (PV) systems are widely spread across MV and LV distribution systems and the penetration of PV generation is solidly growing. Because of the uncertain nature of the solar energy resource
PV power forecasting models are crucial in any energy management system for smart distribution networks. Although point forecasts can suit many scopes
probabilistic forecasts add further flexibility to an energy management system and are recommended to enable a wider range of decision making and optimization strategies. This paper proposes methodology towards probabilistic PV power forecasting based on a Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression model
in which a Bayesian bootstrap is applied to estimate the parameters of a quantile regression model. A novel procedure is presented to optimize the extraction of the predictive quantiles from the bootstrapped estimation of the related coefficients
raising the predictive ability of the final forecasts. Numerical experiments based on actual data quantify an enhancement of the performance of up to 2.2% when compared to relevant benchmarks.
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) systems are widely spread across MV and LV distribution systems and the penetration of PV generation is solidly growing. Because of the uncertain nature of the solar energy resource
PV power forecasting models are crucial in any energy management system for smart distribution networks. Although point forecasts can suit many scopes
probabilistic forecasts add further flexibility to an energy management system and are recommended to enable a wider range of decision making and optimization strategies. This paper proposes methodology towards probabilistic PV power forecasting based on a Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression model
in which a Bayesian bootstrap is applied to estimate the parameters of a quantile regression model. A novel procedure is presented to optimize the extraction of the predictive quantiles from the bootstrapped estimation of the related coefficients
raising the predictive ability of the final forecasts. Numerical experiments based on actual data quantify an enhancement of the performance of up to 2.2% when compared to relevant benchmarks.
Annual performance analysis of differentmaximum power point tracking techniquesused in photovoltaic systems
Dual Alternative Iteration Algorithm-Based Hierarchical MPC Strategy for Frequency Regulation Control and Active Power Allocation of Wind-storage Coupling System
Real-Time Detection of Low-frequency Oscillations in Traction Power Supply Systems Based on Optimized Atomic Decomposition
An Optimized Distribution Model for Energy System in Virtual Power Plants Integrating Electric Vehicles Based on TD3 and DQN
Intelligent Self-Adjusting Protection Algorithm for Smart LVDC Distribution Networks