杨蒲昕, 卢亚静, 李永坤, et al. Variation trends in hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing and its responses to urbanization[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2026, 45(6).
杨蒲昕, 卢亚静, 李永坤, et al. Variation trends in hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing and its responses to urbanization[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2026, 45(6).DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20260607.
This paper presents a systematical analysis on the trends in the hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing from 2000 to 2023 under the influence of urban heat islands and urbanization
based on the observation data of high-resolution precipitation
surface temperature
and impervious surface coverage. To achieve a comprehensive analysis
we use multiple statistical and spatial analysis methods-including trend testing
change point detection
L-moment analysis
cluster analysis
and space-time cube and emerging hot spot analysis. The results indicate a significant overall increase in extreme precipitation. The urbanizing process underwent a structural shift in 2011
leading to an elevated risk of extreme precipitation. High-value precipitation areas are primarily distributed in the city’s southwestern part
while the regions with strong variability and extreme intensity are concentrated in the transitional zones between the urban core and the western and northern mountainous areas. The spatiotemporal patterns of urban heat island are characterized by a stable core and active periphery
closely related to that of the extreme precipitation. Combination of ongoing urbanization and intensifying heat island effects has intensified hourly-scale extreme precipitation in Beijing
increasing spatial heterogeneity and complexity in associated risks.