蔡志坚, 王晓玲, 张君, et al. Stacking-based deep ensemble model for concrete strength prediction considering aggregate gradation and derived features[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2026, 45(2).
蔡志坚, 王晓玲, 张君, et al. Stacking-based deep ensemble model for concrete strength prediction considering aggregate gradation and derived features[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2026, 45(2). DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20260202.
Accurate prediction of concrete compressive strength plays a significant role in quality control during construction. Previous predictive models largely focused on the influence of initial mix proportions
but neglected the impact of aggregate gradation
derived features
and its interpretability. This study develops a stacking-based deep ensemble model for predicting compressive strength
which holistically considers these two factors to improve predictive accuracy and interpretability. This novel model uses three widely used ensemble learning algorithms and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) as heterogeneous base learners to leverage diversity and heterogeneity among these algorithms. To improve the tree-based models that are usually too sensitive to hyperparameters and limited by their capacity for high-dimensional feature extraction
we integrate CNN with a channel attention mechanism
thereby enhancing its feature representation capability. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) incorporating an attention mechanism is adopted as a robust meta-learner to mitigate overfitting risks. Leveraging the SHAP (Shapley Additive explanation) framework
we examine systematically the critical features of concrete strength prediction and their interactive effects. Experimental results show our new model
through considering aggregate gradation and derived features comprehensively
achieves a 27.53% improvement in the accuracy of compressive strength predictions. Using a SHAP analysis
we have identified the dominant drivers of the model-water-to-binder ratio
water content
fly-ash-to-water ratio
cement content
and the mass fraction of aggregates in the size range of 31.5-40 mm. This study improves predictive accuracy and sheds light on the understanding of core parameters governing concrete strength through interpretable analysis