Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach

Fuyuan Yang; Zhidong Wang; Xueqin Tian

doi:10.1093/ce/zkaf075

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Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach

更新时间：2026-04-15

- Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach
- Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach
- 清洁能源（英文） 2026年第2期
- 作者机构：
  
  Main Network Planning Center, State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd.
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  None declared.
- DOI：10.1093/ce/zkaf075
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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Fuyuan Yang, Zhidong Wang, Xueqin Tian. Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach[J]. 清洁能源（英文）, 2026,(2).

Fuyuan Yang, Zhidong Wang, Xueqin Tian, Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach, Clean Energy, Volume 10, Issue 2, April 2026, Pages 146–155, https://doi.org/10.1093/ce/zkaf075
Fuyuan Yang, Zhidong Wang, Xueqin Tian. Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach[J]. 清洁能源（英文）, 2026,(2). DOI： 10.1093/ce/zkaf075.

Fuyuan Yang, Zhidong Wang, Xueqin Tian, Estimating future costs of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage based on a learning rate approach, Clean Energy, Volume 10, Issue 2, April 2026, Pages 146–155, https://doi.org/10.1093/ce/zkaf075 DOI：

摘要

Abstract

The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and variable renewable energy development goals for the power sector. The clean energy transition requires a co-evolution of innovation

investment

and deployment strategies for emerging energy storage technologies. Hydrogen could play a pivotal role as a long-duration energy storage in future low-carbon electricity systems

balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role

but data are scarce and uncertain. Here

we provide a techno-economic evaluation and uncertainty analysis of hydrogen as a long-duration energy storage

using a learning rate approach to estimate the long-term cost. We find that the levelized cost of hydrogen energy storage based on a modeled 25 MW system with proton exchange membranes technology is 3.981 yuan/kWh in 2025. Capital expenditure and equipment replacement costs are the top two contributors

accounting for 32.7% and 33.6%

respectively. Technological advancements and deployment scaling of electrolyzers and fuel cells are projected to drive the levelized cost of hydrogen energy storage down to 1.848 yuan/kWh by 2050 under an 18% learning rate trajectory. Although projections indicate that hydrogen energy storage remains less cost-competitive compared to mature technologies through 2050

like electrochemical storage and pumped hydro storage

its unique value proposition for long-duration storage and grid resilience sustains development potential in high variable renewable energy penetration scenarios.

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