Sushant Kumar, Priya Singh, Ankur Gupta, 等. Wind power forecasting over India: value-addition to a coupled model seasonal forecasts[J]. 清洁能源(英文), 2025,(2).
Sushant Kumar, Priya Singh, Ankur Gupta, Raghavendra Ashrit, Akhilesh Kumar Mishra, Shailendra Rai, Wind power forecasting over India: value-addition to a coupled model seasonal forecasts, Clean Energy, Volume 9, Issue 2, April 2025, Pages 37–51, https://doi.org/10.1093/ce/zkae094
Sushant Kumar, Priya Singh, Ankur Gupta, 等. Wind power forecasting over India: value-addition to a coupled model seasonal forecasts[J]. 清洁能源(英文), 2025,(2). DOI: 10.1093/ce/zkae094.
Sushant Kumar, Priya Singh, Ankur Gupta, Raghavendra Ashrit, Akhilesh Kumar Mishra, Shailendra Rai, Wind power forecasting over India: value-addition to a coupled model seasonal forecasts, Clean Energy, Volume 9, Issue 2, April 2025, Pages 37–51, https://doi.org/10.1093/ce/zkae094DOI:
Wind power forecasting over India: value-addition to a coupled model seasonal forecasts
摘要
Abstract
Accurate predictions of wind power generation several months in advance are crucial for the effective operation and maintenance of wind farms and for facilitating efficient power purchase planning. This study evaluates the performance of the seasonal prediction system of the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in forecasting near-surface winds. An analysis of 23 years of hindcast data
from 1993 to 2015
indicates that the seasonal prediction system effectively captures the inter-annual variability of near-surface winds. Specifically
predictions initialized in May demonstrate notable accuracy
with a skill score of 0.78 in predicting the sign of wind speed anomalies aggregated across various wind farms during the high wind season (June to August). Additionally
we critically examine the peculiarity of a case study from 2020
when the Indian wind industry experienced low power generation. To enhance forecasting accuracy
we employ statistical techniques to produce bias-corrected forecasts on a seasonal scale. This approach improves the accuracy of wind speed predictions at turbine hub height. Our assessment
based on root mean square error
reveals that bias-corrected wind speed forecasts show a significant improvement