ZHOU Hui, WANG Wei, LI Xiao-mei. Study of the Model for Forecasting Vendition kW·h Using ANN[J]. 2004, (5): 1-3.DOI:
基于ANN的销售电量预测模型的研究
摘要
在东北地区电力供需形势逐渐缓和的情况下
电力市场开拓的任务变得十分艰巨
正确地预测出地区销售电量的水平
对于决策者合理地确定销售总定额
分解销售指标
搞好电力企业的经营是十分关键的。运用人工神经网络方法中的 BP算法
利用长春地区历年来销售电量的数据
建立起预测模型
并用 2 0 0 3年的实际值与预测值进行校验
证明了该方法较之传统的回归预测方法
有着更好的预测精度
Abstract
In electricity market
the prediction of kW·h is very important for decision-makers. It is because that the prediction kW·h is the base of total vendition kW·h to be determined
and the base of decomposing the total vendition kW·h into small ones related to individual customers. In this paper
Changchun City
located at the northeast of People’s Republic of China
is employed to be studied. Based on historical vendition kW·h data of the city and the theory of Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network
the forecasting model is deduced. Simulation results show that the forecasting precision of ANN is higher than that of regression approach.