1. 滁州职业技术学院商学院,安徽,滁州,239000
2. 安徽科技工程大学电气与电子工程学院,安徽,滁州,233100
3. 南京师范大学能源与机械工程学院,南京,210023
收稿:2026-03-08,
录用:2026-03-27,
网络首发:2026-08-06,
纸质出版:2026
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韦利云, 毕浩波. “双碳”驱动下绿氨燃料从生产到应用的成本与 降碳收益评价[J/OL]. 能源研究与管理, 2026,181-7.
Wei Liyun, Bi Haobo. Evaluation of the Cost and Carbon Reduction Benefits of Green Ammonia Fuel from Production to Application Driven by “Dual Carbon”[J/OL]. 2026, 181-7.
为助力“双碳”目标落地,探究绿氨作为新型清洁能源燃料的市场化应用潜力与低碳效益,开展绿氨燃料生产至应用的成本与降碳价值评估研究。围绕绿氨水电解制备、合成、储运及燃烧应用全流程,以碳价、电价为核心变量,量化不同场景下绿氨燃料的成本与降碳效益,完成绿氨燃料的综合经济性评价。结果表明:以2024年末碳价测算,电价低于0.10元 /(kW·h)时,绿氨成本可与灰氨持平,降至0.08元 /(kW·h)以下时,可优于天然气。若采用0.60元 /(kW·h)的电网电价,2050年前绿氨仍不具备竞争优势。碳价波动与碳排放强度的耦合作用显著重塑氨燃料应用经济格局,西北弃电生产模式凭借低成本绿电与低排放优势,2020年已显现碳减排收益,2030年成本优势持续提升,预计2050年碳收益完全覆盖生产与储运成本。综上,随着风光新能源发电成本持续下行,绿氨具备优异的低碳经济效益与广阔应用前景,可成为重要化石燃料替代清洁能源。
To facilitate the implementation of the "dual carbon" goals
explore the market application potential and low-carbon benefits of green ammonia as a new type of clean energy fuel
and conduct a study on the cost and carbon reduction value assessment from the production to the application of green ammonia fuel. Focusing on the entire process of green ammonia production through water electrolysis
synthesis
storage and transportation
as well as its combustion applications
with carbon pricing and electricity pricing as the core variables
we quantify the costs and carbon reduction benefits of green ammonia fuel under different scenarios
and complete a comprehensive economic evaluation of green ammonia fuel. The results indicate that
based on the carbon price at the end of 2024
when the electricity price is below 0.10 yuan/(kW·h)
the cost of green ammonia can be on par with that of gray ammonia. When it drops below 0.08 yuan/(kW·h)
it can become more competitive than natural gas. However
if the grid electricity price is set at 0.60 yuan/(kW·h)
green ammonia will not possess a competitive edge until 2050. The coupled effect of carbon price fluctuations and carbon emission intensity has significantly reshaped the economic landscape of ammonia fuel applications. The northwest electricity curtailment production model
leveraging its advantages of low-cost green electricity and low emissions
has already demonstrated carbon emission reduction benefits in 2020. Its cost advantage is expected to continue to increase in 2030
and it is projected that by 2050
carbon revenues will fully cover production
storage
and transportation costs. In summary
as the cost of wind and solar renewable energy generation continues to decline
green ammonia possesses excellent low-carbon economic benefits and broad application prospects
making it a viable clean energy alternative to important fossil fuels.
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