Risk factors of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM were identified; and two-layer indicator system was established for risk assessment. Standard of risk classification was determined. Risk analysis model for long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM techniques was established on the basis of set pair analysis. Weight vector was determined by entropy weight method. Calculation method of five-element partial connection number was established and method of trend prediction was put forward by improved set pair potential theory. Trend analysis and risk evaluation of inclined wells (experiment wells #1

#2) which were constructed by TBM in Taigemiao mine area were studied by this model. The model is effective and practical for the risk analysis of mine inclined-shaft construction by TBM. As a result it provides a new way for long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM techniques