JING Wen-jun, YANG Chun-he, CHEN Feng, et al. Oil and gas leakage risk analysis of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock using fault tree analysis[J]. 2012, 33(6).
JING Wen-jun, YANG Chun-he, CHEN Feng, et al. Oil and gas leakage risk analysis of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock using fault tree analysis[J]. 2012, 33(6).DOI:
Oil and gas leakage is one of the most important types of underground storage cavern accidents in salt rock
which has the features like abruptness and inestimable loss. By taking the underground storage caverns in bedded salt of China as research object
its oil and gas leakage risk in the operation process is analyzed; the mechanism of oil and gas leakage accident is revealed and the corresponding fault tree model is established. By analysis
mostly influence factors and fault patterns are found out; and the occurrence probability formula is deduced
which is applicable to the typical underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock. The results show that there are 28 fault patterns of oil and gas leakage accidents of underground storage caverns in bedded salt and this kind of accidents are likely to happen and difficult to prevent; namely
its occurrence possibility is pretty large; according to the calculation results of the basic events’ importance degree
low strength of salt rock
excessive creep of salt rock
fault near the cavern
earthquake
incorrect control of cavern construction parameters
non-uniform ground stress field
human error and so on are the main factors leading to oil and gas leakage accidents. By using Delphi method and fault tree analysis synthetically
it is concluded that the risk probability of oil and gas leakage accidents at five old caverns of Jintan salt mine in recent 10 years is about 0.703%