For great destructive debris flow

predicting the likelihood of its early warning is an important means of disaster prevention and mitigation

as well as scholars focus on the key issues. Based on the principle of efficacy coefficient method

analyzing the meteorological and geological environmental factors synthetically; evaluation factors such as hill slope

relative height

vegetation cover

along the groove loose material reserves

5 d cumulative rainfall

maximum rainfall intensity per hour

and intraday rainfall are selected. Using the improved analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficients of evaluation factors

a early warning of debris flow prediction model is established. Taking an early warning of debris flow in Xiuyan for example

the model is tested to predict the results which reflect the actual situation better. The debris flow early warning model has higher reliability and practicability

and it can provide new ideas and methods for early warning of debris flow prediction.