Utilizing four kinds of limit equilibrium methods such as Morgenstern-Price

Ordinary

Bishop and Janbu

stability of the landslide No. 8 in Zhuxi sector of Taizhou North-to-South Water Transfer Project is studied on basis of reliability theory. Determined analysis schemes of most harmful

most favorable and mean constitutions are designed to set reference points for probabilistic method. The influence of cyclic number on Mento-Carlo method is discussed under condition of cyclic numbers of 5 000

50 000

500 000

5 000 000. Then

the effect of probability distribution function such as normal

triangular and uniform is analyzed and tested. Furthermore

the effect of variance is reviewed on condition that standard deviation respectively equals 0.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0 and 5.0 times of experimental value. Finally

sensitivity analysis and correlative coefficient between strength parameters from -1.0 to 1.0 change at intervals of 0.25 is considered. It is found that cyclic number only imposes great effect on extreme values of Fs

that different probabilistic distribution function and variance can do great harm to reliability indexes

and that correlative coefficient only exerts effect on failure probability.