The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides

and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted

relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. To avoid and mitigate such seismic landslide hazard

this paper presents a method to evaluate the probability of slope failures using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations with geographic information systems (GIS). In the modeling

an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area; and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic displacement. After deriving the displacement from related inputs

the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1 000 times

and generated 1 000 displacement values for each grid cell; and then the displacement mean and standard deviation were calculated and its probabilistic distribution can be obtained. Finally

given 2 cm as a threshold value of displacement

estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 2 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazard. The resulting map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.