耦合协调视角下城市供排水系统失调风险概率评估——以广州市为例

黎思乐

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耦合协调视角下城市供排水系统失调风险概率评估——以广州市为例

更新时间：2026-06-22

- 耦合协调视角下城市供排水系统失调风险概率评估——以广州市为例
- Probabilistic Assessment of Maladjustment Risk in Urban Water Supply and Drainage Systems from the Perspective of Coupling Coordination: A Case Study of Guangzhou
- 人民珠江 2026年页码：1-12
- 作者机构：
  
  广州市番禺城市排水管理有限公司，广东广州 511450
- 作者简介：
  
  黎思乐（1980—），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事智慧水务技术与政务管理工作。
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  中图分类号： X913.4
- 收稿：2026-04-17，
  
  修回：2026-06-05，
  
  录用：2026-06-05，
  
  网络首发：2026-06-22，
- 稿件说明：
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黎思乐.耦合协调视角下城市供排水系统失调风险概率评估［J］.人民珠江，DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.XXXX.XX.001.

Li Sile.Probabilistic Assessment of Maladjustment Risk in Urban Water Supply and Drainage Systems from the Perspective of Coupling Coordination: A Case Study of Guangzhou[J].PEARL RIVER,
黎思乐.耦合协调视角下城市供排水系统失调风险概率评估［J］.人民珠江，DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.XXXX.XX.001. DOI：

Li Sile.Probabilistic Assessment of Maladjustment Risk in Urban Water Supply and Drainage Systems from the Perspective of Coupling Coordination: A Case Study of Guangzhou[J].PEARL RIVER, DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235...001.

摘要

量化城市供排水系统的协调发展水平、精准识别其失调风险，对保障城市水系统稳定运行、提升基础设施综合利用效率具有重要意义。文章提出并界定供排水系统协调的概念，并以广州市2006—2024年供排水系统为研究对象，选取反映供水与排水子系统发展水平的供水4项、排水6项共10项核心指标，系统开展协调状态评估与失调风险量化研究。本研究借助耦合协调度模型刻画系统协调演化特征，并引入Bootstrap重采样方法，通过设置多组随机种子重复模拟、采用众数法优选最优随机种子，实现小样本条件下失调风险的概率化评估。研究期内广州市供排水系统发展呈现低水平失衡、严重不协调向协调发展逐步演进的时序特征，系统耦合度长期处于高位，子系统间交互关联性较强；2006—2016年协调度低于0.6的失调阈值，2017年后逐步转入协调状态且协调水平持续提升；利用Bootstrap模拟，结果显示系统失调风险概率均值为0.576 3，95%置信区间为［0.368 4，0.789 5］。因此，广州市供排水系统失调风险整体偏高。研究为广州市供排水基础设施协调规划与失调风险防控提供量化支撑，也为同类城市水系统协调治理提供方法参考。

Abstract

The coordinated development of urban water supply and drainage systems constitutes a critical foundation for sustainable urban water management

resource conservation

and infrastructure optimization. Quantifying the coordinated development level and accurately identifying the maladjustment risk of these systems are of great significance for ensuring the stable operation of urban water systems

enhancing infrastructure resilience

and improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources. As cities continue to expand

the interdependence between water supply and drainage subsystems has become increasingly pronounced

necessitating robust analytical frameworks to assess their synergistic evolution and potential vulnerability.This paper proposes and defines the concept of coordination for water supply and drainage systems

establishing a theoretical foundation for characterizing the interrelationships between these two critical subsystems. Taking the water supply and drainage system of Guangzhou from 2006 to 2024 as the research object

ten core indicators are selected to reflect the development levels of both subsystems—four for the water supply subsystem and six for the drainage subsystem—which collectively capture the multidimensional developmental characteristics of the integrated water system. The coupling coordination degree model is employed to characterize the evolutionary features of system coordination

enabling quantitative measurement of both coupling strength and coordination level. Furthermore

the Bootstrap resampling method is introduced to achieve a probabilistic assessment of maladjustment risk under small-sample conditions

by setting multiple random seeds for repeated simulations and adopting the mode method to select the optimal random seed

thereby ensuring the robustness of the risk quantification results.The results demonstrate that during the study period

the development of Guangzhou's water supply and drainage system exhibited a clear temporal evolution from low-level imbalance and severe incoordination toward gradual coordinated development

reflecting substantial progress in urban water system governance. The system coupling degree remained high throughout most of the study period

indicating a strong interactive correlation between the subsystems. The coordination degree was consistently below the maladjustment threshold of 0.6 from 2006 to 2016

after which the system gradually transitioned into a coordinated state with continuously improving coordination levels after 2017. Based on 5000 Bootstrap simulations

the mean probability of system maladjustment risk is estimated at 0.5763

with a 95% confidence interval of [0.368 4

0.789 5]

providing a statistically grounded assessment of residual vulnerability within the system.It can be concluded that despite recent improvements in coordination

the overall maladjustment risk of Guangzhou's water supply and drainage system remains relatively high

warranting continued attention from policymakers. This study provides important quantitative support for the coordinated planning and maladjustment risk prevention and control of water supply and drainage infrastructure in Guangzhou

and offers valuable methodological references for the coordinated governance of water systems in similar cities.

关键词

Keywords

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