PANG Huan, HE Siyuan, ZHENG Zidong, et al. Research on load forecasting method of photovoltaic charging station for novel distribution system[J]. 2026, 63(4).
PANG Huan, HE Siyuan, ZHENG Zidong, et al. Research on load forecasting method of photovoltaic charging station for novel distribution system[J]. 2026, 63(4).DOI:
photovoltaic (PV) charging stations have attracted much attention as a typical distributed resource aggregation form. Since both distributed PV generation and charging loads are characterized by randomness and volatility
the load forecasting task of PV charging stations is particularly complex. In this paper
considering the dynamic impact of PV charging station access on the regional load profile
a PV charging station load forecasting method based on multi-layer limit learning machine and quantile regression theory is proposed. Firstly
the factors affecting the load of PV charging station are feature extracted and key feature quantities are extracted. Secondly
combined with the quantile regression algorithm
a multi-layer kernel limit learning machine deep neural network model is constructed to realize the load interval prediction of PV charging station under different confidence levels
and the improved sparrow optimization algorithm is used for the parameter optimization and the optimal model is selected for the load prediction. Finally
the load data of a photovoltaic charging station in a northern region of China is selected for example analysis. The results demonstrate that the proposed PV charging station load prediction method oriented to the novel distribution system achieves satisfactory forecasting performance and enables more accurate acquisition of load forecasting information.