According to 2003-2004’s ultraviolet ray radiation observed data from Ganzhou local meteorological station

we had statistical analysis on the relational change between the 10～13’h average ultraviolet ray radiation quantity（zwx） and the power change of the Surface meteorological element.（it indicated that the better correlational dependence for the ultraviolet ray radiation quantity with 14 o′clock temperatures（t14）

the barometric pressure（p14）

and the humidity（e14）.and positive correlation with t14、e14

negative correlation with p14;Analyzing the correlation change between zwx and the power change of t14x、e14x、p14x

it was indicated that the positive and negative correlation maintenance is invariable when x changes on the sector [0.1

3.0]

the correlation between zwx and t14（2.5） is amounts to 0.82.） According to the result we established the local ultraviolet ray radiation intensity index prognostic equation

)（this prognostic equation had a stronger usability

） it had the actual reference value in the forecast service.