CHANG Xiqiang. Load Forecasting and Analysis of Electric Heating of Regional Power Grid Based on Multi-factor Consideration[J]. 2021, 44(2): 33-37.DOI:
Electric heating in winter can effectively promote the consumption of new energy and reduce wind and solar abandonment. However
the harmonics generated by large-scale electric heating equipment will affect the quality of the power grid. Therefore
it is necessary to analyze and predict the electric heating load in order to facilitate grid dispatch and safe operation
and relieve the load peak and frequency regulation pressure of the power system. In order to predict the electric heating load
this paper takes the actual electric heating load in a certain area as an example
and analyzes the four factors that affect the change of the electric heating load: stable load factor
weather sensitive factor
random load factor
date type factor. Finally
it is concluded that the main influencing factors of electric heating load changes are date type factors and weather sensitive factors. Therefore
this paper establishes a prediction model that considers the date type
and is based on the average temperature and the least squares method of human comfort. The prediction results show that both models have obtained high prediction accuracy
and both can be used for regional load forecasting.