CHENG Qiming, ZHANG Qiang, CHENG Yinman, et al. Short-term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on Hierarchical Clustering of Density Peaks Algorithm[J]. 2017, 43(4): 1214-1222.
CHENG Qiming, ZHANG Qiang, CHENG Yinman, et al. Short-term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on Hierarchical Clustering of Density Peaks Algorithm[J]. 2017, 43(4): 1214-1222.DOI:
基于密度峰值层次聚类的短期光伏功率预测模型
摘要
针对传统聚类算法不易选取初始聚类中心、对噪声值较敏感、收敛速度慢及易陷入局部最优等问题
提出一种基于密度峰值的层次聚类算法对天气类型进行聚类。首先确定气象数据的密度峰值参数
采用分层聚类算法将气象数据划分为不同类别
然后利用支持向量机(SVM)对未知天气类型进行识别
最终采用径向基(RBF)神经网络建立光伏发电短期功率预测模型。仿真结果表明
该方法能有效提高气象类型的分类精度、加快寻优速度
提高离群样本点分离的鲁棒性
证明了其在小样本的情况下具有较高的精度
且在天气波动较大时仍能较好地实现功率值的预测。
Abstract
In view of the traditional clustering algorithm’s problem that is hard to select the initial clustering centers
more sensitive to noise
slow convergence rate and easy to fall into the local optimum
a hierarchical clustering algorithm based on density peaks for weather category is proposed in this paper. Firstly
the parameters of density peaks on meteorological data are determined
and meteorological data are divided into different categories using hierarchical clustering algorithm. Then
the support vector machine(SVM) is used to identify the unknown weather types. Finally radial basis function(RBF) neural network is adopted to establish the photovoltaic short-term power prediction model. The simulation results showed that the proposed method can improve the classification accuracy of weather types effectively
accelerate the speed of searching optimums
and improve the robustness of the outliers
which proved that the accuracy is still higher under circumstance of small samples
and still be able to achieve the prediction of power value in weather have great fluctuations.