WANG Bo, LIU Chun, FENG Shuanglei, et al. Prediction Method for Short-term Wind Power Based on Wind Farm Clusters[J]. 2018, 44(4): 1254-1260.DOI:
基于集群划分的短期风电功率预测方法
摘要
风电功率预测的快速全覆盖对区域风电的优化调度意义重大
现有预测算法均无法解决这一问题。为此
采用模糊聚类分析实现对风电场出力特性的有效识别和风电场集群的合理划分
将主成分分析用于区域空间特征气象参数的提取
建立了基于集群划分的区域风电功率预测技术框架。算例结果表明
单个集群的预测精度略低于传统逐风电场建模的预测精度;随着预测范围的扩大
区域集群预测与传统预测方法的精度相当
但建模量明显减少。基于集群划分的短期风电功率预测方法可在保证预测精度的同时
显著提升建模效率。
Abstract
The fast-full coverage of regional wind farms of wind power prediction is very important for optimal scheduling of wind farms;the existing prediction algorithms are unable to solve this problem.Consequently
we adopted fuzzy clustering analyses to achieve an effective recognition of the wind power characteristics and a reasonable division of wind farm clusters.The principal component analysis was used to extract the region weather characteristic parameters
and a framework of wind power prediction method was established based on clusters.The results show that the prediction accuracy of a single cluster is slightly lower than the traditional method which models for each wind farm
with the expansion of the forecast range
the prediction accuracy will reach the level of the traditional method.The prediction method based on wind farm clusters can ensure the prediction accuracy
at the same time
achieve a significant efficiency improvement compared to the traditional method.