ZHENG Lingming, SHU Shengwen, CHEN Bin, et al. Prediction Method for Amount of 10 kV Damaged Poles Under Severe Typhoon Environment Based on Meshing and Support Vector Machine[J]. 2020, 46(1): 42-51.
ZHENG Lingming, SHU Shengwen, CHEN Bin, et al. Prediction Method for Amount of 10 kV Damaged Poles Under Severe Typhoon Environment Based on Meshing and Support Vector Machine[J]. 2020, 46(1): 42-51.DOI:
The 10 kV poles are vulnerable to severe typhoons due to the low wind-resistance
and prediction for the amount of 10 kV damaged poles is important for the deployment of preparedness plans and the allocation of emergency resources before the disaster. Consequently
we proposed a prediction method for the amount of 10 kV damaged poles under severe typhoon environment based on meshing and support vector machine. Based on the theory of regional natural disaster system
a feature set representing the influence on the 10 kV poles
including disaster-causing factors
disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-affected body
was constructed and meshed to 3 km×3 km grid units as the input of support vector machine regression(SVR) model. Then
the amount of 10 kV damaged poles in each grid unit was taken as the output of the SVR model. Thereby
a prediction model for the amount of 10 kV damaged poles under severe typhoon environment was established. Meanwhile
the model was adopted to predict the amount of 10 kV damaged poles in a certain area during the Typhoon Meranti(no. 1614)
and the predicted value is significantly correlated with the actual damage
which validated the proposed model. This method provides a possible way to predict the amount of 10 kV damaged poles under severe typhoon environment.