1. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室/国网公司电力气象联合实验室
2. 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院
网络出版:2020-04-30,
纸质出版:2020
移动端阅览
滑申冰, 冯双磊, 靳双龙, 等. 基于邻域法对覆冰预报产品的评估[J]. 高电压技术, 2020,46(4):1450-1457.
HUA Shenbing, FENG Shuanglei, JIN Shuanglong, et al. Evaluation of Transmission Line Icing Prediction Products Based on Fraction Skill Score[J]. 2020, 46(4): 1450-1457.
随着覆冰预报模型的发展
模型预报结果蕴含的预报信息更丰富
传统评价方法和指标已不能客观合理地评估现有预报产品。为充分利用现有覆冰预报产品
对比了传统评分方法和邻域法
并利用邻域法评估了覆冰预报模式对2016—2017年冬季四川电网覆冰的预报效果。结果表明:评估的预报产品可以较准确地反映线路覆冰的空间分布和时序变化
覆冰厚度偏高2~3mm;邻域法比传统评价方法更加合理和客观
评估结果减少了空报和漏报倾向
避免了传统方法评估导致覆冰预报产品不可用或可用价值低的现象;当覆冰厚度小于20 mm时
在距任意输电杆塔水平方向1~3 km的范围内预报数据均是可利用的;当覆冰厚度介于20~28 mm时
预报数据可用性较低
可能是由于覆冰观测样本极少导致的。利用邻域法评估覆冰预报产品有利于实现现有预报精度下覆冰产品的最大化利用
评估结果对实际生产中覆冰预报产品的利用具有参考意义
同时也是对预报模式的反馈
可为更具针对性的优化数值模式提供支撑。
With the enhancement of computing capacity and the development of power icing prediction model
the model can provide more rich prediction information. However
traditional evaluation methods and indicators are not objective and reasonable when it comes to evaluate the existing prediction products. To make full use of existing icing forecast products
we evaluate icing prediction products of Sichuan power grid by comparing with traditional grading methods in winter
2016—2017. The results show that the selected icing forecast products can accurately reflect the icing spatial and temporal distribution though the prediction thickness is 2~3 mm thicker than the observations. Meanwhile
compared with the traditional method
the fraction skill score(FSS) is more flexible and more instructive for the electricity production and operation due to reducing of tendency to miss alarm rates and false alarm rates. In addition
forecast products are credible and reliable in the range of 1~3 km below 20 mm thickness. Few observed samples of 20~28 mm icing data lead to low availability of forecast products. Applying FSS to evaluate the existing icing prediction products is conducive to maximizing the utilization of icing products under the existed prediction accuracy. And it is significant for the use of existing prediction products during power network operation. Moreover
the evaluation results are also feedback to prediction model to optimize the numerical model.
0
浏览量
0
下载量
7
CSCD
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构
京公网安备11010802024621