MENG Anbo, CHEN Jiaming, LI Zhanlian, et al. Short-term Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction Based on Similar Day Theory and CSO-WGPR[J]. 2021, 47(4): 1176-1184.
MENG Anbo, CHEN Jiaming, LI Zhanlian, et al. Short-term Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction Based on Similar Day Theory and CSO-WGPR[J]. 2021, 47(4): 1176-1184.DOI:
基于相似日理论和CSO-WGPR的短期光伏发电功率预测
摘要
针对光伏发电功率预测精度不高的问题
提出一种结合纵横交叉算法与改进的高斯过程回归算法(crisscross optimization algorithm and weighted Gaussian process regression
Aiming at the problem of low accuracy of photovoltaic power generation prediction
a prediction model combining crisscross optimization algorithm and weighted Gaussian process regression algorithm(CSO-WGPR) is proposed. Firstly
the weather types are divided by weighted fuzzy clustering
and similar day samples of the same type as the forecast days are selected. Secondly
one-class support vector machine(One-Class SVM) algorithm combined with traditional gaussian process regression algorithm is used to establish a weighted Gaussian process regression model(WGPR) to reduce the adverse effects of outlier data on the prediction results. Finally
the crisscross optimization algorithm(CSO) is used to optimize the hyperparameters of WGPR to further improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Australian Alice Springs photovoltaic system is taken as an example for modeling and prediction
and the real data simulation and experimental results show that the proposed prediction model has higher prediction accuracy under sunny