YANG Guohua, ZHANG Honghao, ZHENG Haofeng, et al. Short-term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Similar Weather Clustering and IHGWO-WNN-AdaBoost Model[J]. 2021, 47(4): 1185-1194.
YANG Guohua, ZHANG Honghao, ZHENG Haofeng, et al. Short-term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Similar Weather Clustering and IHGWO-WNN-AdaBoost Model[J]. 2021, 47(4): 1185-1194.DOI:
To further improve the accuracy and stability of short-term forecasting of photovoltaic output power
an adaptive hybrid prediction model based on similar weather clustering
wavelet neural network(WNN) and AdaBoost is proposed. Firstly
the fuzzy C-means(FCM) algorithm is used to divide the initial data set according to different seasons and weather types. Secondly
WNN is selected as the base learner of the improved AdaBoost to build the WNN-AdaBoost model
and the improved hybridizing grey wolf optimization(IHGWO) algorithm is used to optimize the wavelet factor and weight of WNN. Finally
the actual measured output power data of a photovoltaic power station in the central region of China is selected to analyze the calculation example
and the prediction effect is verified by comparison with other models. The results show that the proposed model can obtain better prediction results under different weather types
and it has strong adaptability and robustness while effectively improving the accuracy of photovoltaic short-term output power prediction.